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Game Recap
NJD2
SEA4
SEA beat NJD 4-2, with the chances close: 2.99 expected goals to 2.82. NJD outshot SEA 29 to 19. D. Hamilton led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kovacevic had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Daccord stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 1st 8:11NJDD. HamiltonPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:37SEAR. Evans0.02 xG
- 3rd 7:04SEAM. Beniers0.07 xG
- 3rd 7:22SEAB. Catton0.55 xG
- 3rd 8:14NJDJ. HughesPP0.03 xG
- 3rd 18:48SEAJ. EberleEN0.91 xG
Team Stats
NJDSEA
29Shots on goal19
2.82Expected goals2.99
70Shot attempts44
195v5 shots on goal15
2/4Power play0/4
13Hits19
16Blocked shots20
23Penalty minutes13
16Giveaways9
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 2.82 xGSEA 2.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:16 | 3:29 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 3:00 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:23 | 3:29 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:39 | 3:29 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:05 | 0:44 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:38 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 17 | 11:53 | 1:13 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 9:19 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:38 | 0:44 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:30 | 3:29 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:44 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:06 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 18 | 15 | 3 | .833 | 57:16 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:45 | 3:18 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:50 | 3:41 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:02 | 3:47 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:36 |
| B. Catton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 3:02 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:07 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:31 | 2:40 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 2:37 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 7:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:15 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:43 | 2:54 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:11 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:39 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:54 | 0:16 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 5 | 17:32 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 2C. Glass13:22L. Hameenaho13:04A. Gritsyuk12:13
Line 3N. Hischier11:08D. Mercer8:59O. Palat8:48
Line 4E. Dadonov6:54P. Cotter6:31C. Brown5:05
Pair 1J. Kovacevic13:00S. Nemec17:31
Pair 2B. Dillon15:30D. Hamilton15:16
Pair 3B. Pesce12:19J. Siegenthaler16:50
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle13:28M. Beniers13:35J. McCann12:50
Line 2C. Stephenson12:02E. Tolvanen11:45B. Catton10:11
Line 3K. Kakko10:56S. Wright11:28J. Schwartz12:12
Line 4F. Gaudreau11:01R. Winterton7:47J. Melanson7:41
Pair 1J. Oleksiak14:50B. Montour18:47
Pair 2A. Larsson15:27V. Dunn14:15
Pair 3R. Lindgren13:12R. Evans13:48
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.1, SEA 3.1 | NJD 2, SEA 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 29.2, SEA 26.4 | NJD 29, SEA 19 |
| Win chance | NJD 50% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.5 | 3 | 0.99 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.9 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 5 | 0.53 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.4 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.0 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD E. Dadonov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Melanson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.8 | 4 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.