Game Recap: NJD 2, SJS 3, January 4, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD2

FinalSat, Jan 4, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat NJD 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.58 expected goals to 3.61. S. Noesen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. Y. Askarov stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	1	1	2
SJS	1	0	2	3

1st 17:40SJSN. Kovalenko0.11 xG
2nd 4:19NJDN. HischierPP0.38 xG
3rd 1:53SJSM. Celebrini0.11 xG
3rd 5:07NJDP. Cotter0.09 xG
3rd 19:35SJSC. Ceci0.03 xG

Team Stats

NJDSJS

30Shots on goal24

3.61Expected goals2.58

62Shot attempts52

245v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/4

21Hits16

12Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways11

3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.61 xGSJS 2.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD30 on goal, 2 scored

SJS24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	2	19:47	3:09
J. Hughes	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	19:31	3:05
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:13	3:04
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	-2	0	13:34	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	5	3	1	-1	0	17:36	3:07
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:31	0:07
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:59	0:04
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:06	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:16	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:31	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:17	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	19:55	0:02
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:09	0:06
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	20:36	3:09
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	20:13	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:32	0:02
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	4	16:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	24	21	3	.875	59:20	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:05	5:15
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	18:08	2:11
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	17:40	5:27
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	16:44	4:57
L. Kunin	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+2	0	13:54	0:02
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:12	2:04
N. Kovalenko	RW	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	0	10:14	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:33	5:32
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	18:18	4:29
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	15:27	2:58
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:39	2:17
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	12:25	0:00
C. Ceci	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+2	0	21:34	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	20:38	0:01
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	19:22	0:03
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:25	1:51
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:21	0:00
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTimo Meier NJD Faces SJS, his team until Feb 20232 SOG
Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces NJD, his team until Mar 20244 SOG
BirthdayNico Hischier NJD Turns 26 that day1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 3.8, SJS 2.7	NJD 2, SJS 3
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	NJD 32.7, SJS 25.5	NJD 30, SJS 24
Win chance	NJD 65%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.0	4	1.29	1	39%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.9	2	0.80	1	27%	1
NJD T. Meier	2.9	2	0.76	0	32%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.8	4	0.71	0	16%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	3	0.98	1	32%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	1	1.13	1	32%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.3	4	0.60	0	28%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	5	0.67	0	26%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.1	1	0.80	0	19%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	1.9	4	0.54	0	22%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	0	0.62	1	10%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	1	0.53	0	24%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.6	1	0.39	0	17%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.6	0	0.30	0	6%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.4	0	0.41	1	17%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	1	0.33	1	18%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.49	0	19%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.3	4	0.54	1	17%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.3	1	0.38	1	17%	1
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	1	0.29	1	5%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	2	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	0	0.34	1	15%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.40	1	15%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	1	0.24	0	4%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.21	0	5%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
SJS J. Rutta	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS K. Kostin	1.0	0	0.35	0	17%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	2	0.30	0	13%	0
SJS N. Kovalenko	0.9	1	0.33	1	12%	1
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.30	0	6%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	2	0.23	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.