NJD beat STL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.28 expected goals to 2.15. NJD outshot STL 28 to 20. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Z. Bolduc had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Markstrom stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 3.28 xGSTL 2.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:48 | 2:14 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:20 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:19 | 2:05 |
| O. Palat | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:51 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:04 | 1:21 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:09 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:53 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:36 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:38 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:53 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:59 | 1:29 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:51 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 1:08 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:14 |
| B. Dillon | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 1:15 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:17 | 1:15 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 1:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 59:28 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:22 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:14 | 0:36 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:14 | 1:22 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:24 | 1:24 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:33 | 1:25 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:38 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:35 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:36 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:40 | 1:35 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 19:48 | 0:02 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:25 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 58:11 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 3.2, STL 3.0 | NJD 4, STL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 30.1, STL 26.3 | NJD 28, STL 20 |
| Win chance | NJD 53% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 2 | 1.11 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.7 | 2 | 0.90 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.6 | 3 | 0.81 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.99 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.7 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.