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Game Recap
NJD3
STL1
NJD beat STL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.32 expected goals to 1.88. T. Meier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Markstrom stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 5:37NJDT. Meier0.08 xG
- 2nd 19:44NJDD. HamiltonPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 18:42STLP. Buchnevich0.35 xG
- 3rd 19:55NJDN. HischierEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
NJDSTL
33Shots on goal26
4.32Expected goals1.88
57Shot attempts52
285v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play0/3
12Hits29
12Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways12
8Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NJD 4.32 xGSTL 1.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:16 | 0:52 |
| N. Hischier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 1:37 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:54 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:37 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 1:57 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:54 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:39 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:28 | 1:57 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:34 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:34 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 3:03 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:53 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:10 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 3:11 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:20 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:50 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:49 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 2:36 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:03 | 0:02 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:41 | 0:02 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:02 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:15 | 3:01 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 2:54 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:02 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:05 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 56:16 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NJD
Line 1T. Meier16:31D. Mercer14:20N. Hischier12:57
Line 2J. Bratt12:28L. Hameenaho11:46C. Glass11:57
Line 3J. Hughes13:49A. Gritsyuk11:27C. Brown11:23
Line 4P. Cotter8:25M. Tsyplakov8:53N. Bjugstad9:09
Pair 1D. Hamilton14:23J. Siegenthaler15:59
STL
Line 1D. Holloway14:19P. Suter13:19J. Berggren14:31
Line 2B. Schenn13:32D. Dvorsky13:50J. Snuggerud14:29
Line 3P. Buchnevich12:17J. Neighbours11:55J. Kyrou12:09
Line 4N. Walker7:49A. Toropchenko7:32J. Finley7:28
Pair 1C. Fowler18:20L. Mailloux18:33
Pair 2J. Faulk15:56P. Broberg16:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NJD 2.9, STL 3.1 | NJD 3, STL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NJD 27.0, STL 25.9 | NJD 33, STL 26 |
| Win chance | STL 54% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.1 | 5 | 1.01 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 8 | 0.65 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.9 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 0 | 0.77 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 5 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bjugstad | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hameenaho | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.4 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD M. Tsyplakov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.