Game Recap: NJD 2, VGK 1 (SO), December 17, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD2

Final/SOWed, Dec 17, 2025Every game that night

VGK1

NJD beat VGK 2-1 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.01 expected goals to 4.14. N. Hischier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Allen stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NJD	0	1	0	1	2
VGK	0	0	1	0	1

2nd 4:50NJDC. Brown0.20 xG
3rd 15:49VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.19 xG

Team Stats

NJDVGK

33Shots on goal37

4.01Expected goals4.14

66Shot attempts66

255v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play1/4

21Hits21

10Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways16

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 4.01 xGVGK 4.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD31 on goal, 1 scored

VGK36 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Brown	RW	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:32	1:13
N. Hischier	C	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	23:15	2:49
J. Bratt	LW	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:55	2:56
D. Mercer	C	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	20:17	1:27
O. Palat	LW	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:05	2:46
C. Glass	C	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	15:52	1:03
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	14:41	1:01
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:19	2:32
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:07	0:00
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:36	0:00
X. Parent	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:21	0:00
A. Crookshank	C	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:01	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	26:17	2:53
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	25:05	1:15
B. Pesce	D	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	23:58	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	3	1	3	0	2	23:17	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:28	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	9:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	37	36	1	.973	65:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Stone	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	23:38	5:47
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	22:38	5:51
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	4	1	3	-1	0	20:26	5:57
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	21:27	5:49
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:15	0:48
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:59	0:42
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:08	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	13:46	2:30
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	12:46	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:24	0:52
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:28	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	7:53	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	26:07	2:18
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:17	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	20:44	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	18:52	0:00
B. Hutton	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	16:13	0:48
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hart	33	32	1	.970	65:00	OT loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Bratt15:39D. Mercer15:46N. Hischier15:40

Line 2C. Brown15:33C. Glass14:29O. Palat12:39

Line 3A. Crookshank10:01X. Parent10:21L. Glendening10:12

Line 4S. Noesen9:47P. Cotter12:56J. Lammikko10:34

Pair 1D. Hamilton20:57J. Siegenthaler20:28

Pair 2L. Hughes20:47B. Pesce19:23

Pair 3B. Dillon11:51C. White9:07

VGK

Line 1M. Stone15:33B. Howden15:46M. Marner13:39

Line 2I. Barbashev15:27P. Dorofeyev15:37T. Hertl14:00

Line 3K. Kolesar8:57C. Sissons8:56C. Reinhardt7:53

Line 4R. Smith14:43B. Bowman11:15B. Saad11:33

Pair 1B. McNabb18:41K. Korczak18:24

Pair 2N. Hanifin19:35Z. Whitecloud16:54

Pair 3B. Hutton15:25J. Lauzon13:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.5, VGK 3.2	NJD 2, VGK 1
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	NJD 25.1, VGK 29.8	NJD 33, VGK 37
Win chance	VGK 61%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	4	0.63	1	31%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.4	2	0.46	0	12%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.4	4	0.72	1	29%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.2	2	0.86	0	23%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.2	5	0.78	0	28%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	3	0.44	0	9%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	3	0.96	1	27%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	4	0.49	0	7%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	2	0.48	0	22%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.7	4	1.06	0	27%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.5	3	0.32	0	13%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.5	4	0.35	0	17%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.5	2	0.37	0	17%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.60	0	22%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	3	0.41	1	16%	1
VGK B. Bowman	1.4	4	0.50	0	18%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.4	0	0.42	0	20%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.4	4	0.24	0	6%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.3	1	0.37	0	15%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	2	0.35	0	15%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.27	0	14%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.1	3	0.21	0	4%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	1	0.24	0	3%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.9	0	0.21	0	6%	0
NJD A. Crookshank	0.9	1	0.16	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	3	0.13	0	3%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.9	1	0.13	0	3%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	0.8	0	0.22	0	9%	0
VGK C. Reinhardt	0.8	1	0.19	0	9%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NJD C. White	0.5	0	0.13	0	1%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.5	0	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.