Game Recap: NJD 0, WPG 4, March 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NJD0

FinalFri, Mar 28, 2025Every game that night

WPG4

WPG beat NJD 4-0, with the chances close: 3.66 expected goals to 3.11. A. Iafallo led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Mercer had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Hellebuyck stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NJD	0	0	0	0
WPG	2	2	0	4

1st 0:58WPGA. Iafallo0.16 xG
1st 1:52WPGD. Gustafsson0.43 xG
2nd 15:45WPGA. IafalloPP0.76 xG
2nd 19:18WPGM. Scheifele0.59 xG

Team Stats

NJDWPG

24Shots on goal19

3.11Expected goals3.66

51Shot attempts40

195v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play1/1

31Hits22

10Blocked shots10

2Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways12

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 3.11 xGWPG 3.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD24 on goal, 0 scored

WPG19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	2	1	0	0	0	19:32	4:38
T. Meier	RW	4	2	0	0	0	18:54	4:12
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	1	-1	0	16:40	4:41
S. Noesen	RW	4	0	0	-1	0	16:38	4:11
P. Cotter	LW	1	4	2	-1	0	16:32	0:00
D. Mercer	C	5	0	0	-1	0	16:22	4:21
O. Palat	LW	1	0	1	0	0	14:53	1:33
E. Haula	LW	0	3	0	-1	0	14:08	1:22
T. Tatar	LW	0	2	0	-1	0	13:57	1:48
N. Bastian	RW	0	8	0	-1	0	13:44	0:00
J. Dowling	C	1	1	0	-1	0	13:24	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	4	1	-1	0	13:16	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	0	0	0	20:48	0:00
B. Pesce	D	4	0	0	-1	0	19:49	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	2	0	-2	0	19:40	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	0	-2	0	19:24	0:00
S. Nemec	D	2	0	4	-1	2	16:32	1:50
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	1	0	0	15:17	1:24

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	19	15	4	.789	59:50	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	16:57	0:40
M. Scheifele	C	1	1	2	1	2	0	+2	0	16:50	0:40
A. Iafallo	LW	2	0	2	3	1	2	+2	0	16:34	0:40
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:20	0:40
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	11:26	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	10:40	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:33	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:02	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:16	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:08	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:29	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	13:50	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	20:43	0:40
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:50	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	2	20:42	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	19:51	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	18:32	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	18:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	24	24	0	1.000	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDawson Mercer WPG First game against NJD since he left (his team until Oct 2026)5 SOG
BirthdayJosh Morrissey WPG Turns 30 that day1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NJD 2.6, WPG 3.3	NJD 0, WPG 4
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	NJD 25.2, WPG 27.9	NJD 24, WPG 19
Win chance	WPG 62%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	0	1.04	2	38%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.8	4	0.62	0	29%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.5	2	0.83	1	28%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	2	0.77	0	28%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.3	2	0.81	1	15%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	0	0.86	0	24%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	1	0.97	2	35%	1
NJD S. Noesen	1.8	4	0.43	0	19%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.5	2	0.54	0	19%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	0	0.41	0	20%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	1	0.34	0	6%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.5	0	0.31	0	15%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	5	0.37	0	19%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	4	0.23	0	5%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.3	1	0.33	0	13%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.41	0	17%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.2	0	0.23	0	6%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	1	0.45	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	3	0.32	2	14%	2
NJD O. Palat	1.1	1	0.34	0	15%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.1	1	0.16	0	4%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	1	0.23	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	0	0.32	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
WPG M. Barron	0.9	1	0.17	1	9%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.9	0	0.22	0	3%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.9	1	0.22	1	11%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.8	1	0.17	1	6%	1
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.17	0	7%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.7	2	0.15	0	3%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.7	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.