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Game Recap
NJD2
FinalTue, Nov 10, 2026Every game that night
WPG4

WPG beat NJD 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.43 expected goals to 2.14. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Connor had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. N. Daws stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NJD0202
WPG2024
  1. 1st 7:54WPGD. Mercer0.03 xG
  2. 1st 15:06WPGK. ConnorPP0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 1:14NJDJ. Bratt0.08 xG
  4. 2nd 1:58NJDC. Glass0.07 xG
  5. 3rd 11:58WPGD. MercerPP0.12 xG
  6. 3rd 19:02WPGK. ConnorEN0.48 xG

Team Stats

NJDWPG
21Shots on goal25
2.14Expected goals3.43
51Shot attempts45
155v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play2/4
8Hits22
8Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways9
2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NJD 2.14 xGWPG 3.43 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdWPG goal, 7:54WPG goal, 15:06NJD goal, 1:14NJD goal, 1:58WPG goal, 11:58WPG goal, 19:02

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NJD21 on goal, 2 scored
WPG24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC0113000025:044:49
J. BrattLW1012000021:174:07
A. GritsyukRW011110+1018:461:19
C. GlassC101301+1012:470:00
N. HischierC000101-1221:314:59
C. BrownRW0000100017:444:05
T. MeierRW000311-1017:022:25
L. EvangelistaRW0003000016:102:08
E. RodriguesC0002100014:491:17
A. LombardiC000001-108:330:00
J. BoqvistC000000-106:440:00
D. ChisholmD011100+1211:500:04
J. KovacevicD011000+107:250:00
L. HughesD000010-1023:474:26
B. PesceD0000010219:250:07
J. SiegenthalerD0001000019:190:00
D. HamiltonD0001210218:481:50
B. DillonD0000120012:230:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen24213.87558:52Loss
C. Hellebuyck000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW2027010022:534:28
D. MercerC2023020016:291:34
C. PerfettiC0220100015:434:17
M. ScheifeleC0110000021:174:21
A. IafalloLW0111000013:541:33
V. BjörckC0110100013:451:07
G. VilardiC0001000220:584:24
M. BarronC0001100016:090:00
A. LowryC0000410016:020:00
B. YagerC000100008:511:34
C. KoepkeLW000070007:120:00
I. RosenRW000000005:390:00
J. MorrisseyD000411+1024:054:30
D. SambergD0001020022:420:22
N. PionkD0004300222:051:25
D. DeMeloD0002130220:590:00
M. FerraroD000010-1016:200:00
T. BauerD000021028:210:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
N. Daws21192.90560:00Win
S. Skinner000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes19:14J. Bratt16:19A. Gritsyuk16:56
Line 2N. Hischier13:02L. Evangelista14:00T. Meier13:12
Line 3C. Brown10:17E. Rodrigues10:48C. Glass10:27
Line 4A. Lombardi8:32J. Boqvist6:43
Pair 1B. Pesce17:19L. Hughes17:39
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler15:46D. Hamilton15:28
Pair 3B. Dillon9:29D. Chisholm11:16

WPG

Line 1K. Connor16:16M. Scheifele16:04G. Vilardi16:25
Line 2D. Mercer11:44C. Perfetti11:26B. Yager7:17
Line 3A. Lowry11:45V. Björck11:18A. Iafallo10:18
Line 4M. Barron13:52C. Koepke7:11I. Rosen5:39
Pair 1D. Samberg18:41N. Pionk17:40
Pair 2D. DeMelo17:11J. Morrissey18:45
Pair 3M. Ferraro12:23T. Bauer8:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5-135+1063Under
WPG K. Connor3.5+115-1457Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.5+136-1551Under
WPG C. Perfetti2.5+125-1350Under
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+142-1751Under
NJD J. Bratt2.5+135-1642Under
NJD L. Evangelista2.5+150-1903Over
NJD L. Hughes2.5+145-1780Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+140-1751Under
NJD T. Meier2.5-165+1343Over
NJD C. Brown1.5+125-1500Under
WPG D. Mercer1.5-105-1103Over
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5+100-1052Over
WPG G. Vilardi1.5-145+1151Under
WPG J. Morrissey1.5-155+1354Over
WPG M. Scheifele1.5-180+1460Under
WPG N. Pionk1.5-150+1194Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • MilestoneAlex Iafallo WPG 2 points from 300Not yet: 1 A, 1 SOG
  • Old teamConnor Hellebuyck NJD First game back in Winnipeg, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
  • Old teamDawson Mercer WPG First game against NJD since he left (his team until Oct 2026)2 G, 3 SOG
  • HometownCody Glass NJD Plays in his hometown1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNJD 3.3, WPG 3.0NJD 2, WPG 4
Total goals6.36
Shots on goalNJD 29.8, WPG 26.0NJD 21, WPG 25
Win chanceNJD 55%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.431.22136%0
WPG K. Connor3.471.13240%2
NJD T. Meier3.130.64029%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.410.56014%0
NJD L. Evangelista2.230.64018%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.210.55120%0
NJD L. Hughes2.200.66014%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.200.65225%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.101.09134%0
NJD N. Hischier2.110.78028%0
NJD J. Bratt2.020.89123%1
WPG N. Pionk2.040.54011%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.810.78030%0
WPG J. Morrissey1.840.65012%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.720.43015%0
WPG D. Mercer1.630.44220%2
NJD A. Lombardi1.500.33013%0
NJD C. Brown1.400.53019%0
NJD C. Glass1.330.34115%1
WPG D. Samberg1.310.2905%0
WPG M. Barron1.310.30013%0
NJD B. Pesce1.200.3106%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.210.32114%0
WPG B. Yager1.010.21012%0
WPG C. Koepke1.000.21010%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.000.27011%0
WPG A. Lowry1.000.34014%0
WPG I. Rosen0.900.19010%0
WPG D. DeMelo0.920.2804%0
WPG V. Björck0.900.25110%0
WPG M. Ferraro0.800.1804%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.700.1813%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.710.1713%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.710.2304%0
WPG T. Bauer0.600.1202%0
NJD B. Dillon0.500.1503%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.