ANA beat NSH 5-2, with the chances close: 4.13 expected goals to 4.31. NSH outshot ANA 43 to 35. M. McTavish led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Marchessault had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. L. Dostal stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| ANA | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 4:15ANAP. Mintyukov0.02 xG
- 1st 14:50NSHG. Nyquist0.05 xG
- 1st 19:55ANAM. McTavish0.07 xG
- 2nd 5:07NSHR. O'Reilly0.33 xG
- 2nd 10:46ANAJ. Harkins0.04 xG
- 2nd 11:48ANAT. Zegras0.03 xG
- 2nd 14:20ANAM. McTavishPP0.14 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 4.31 xGANA 4.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:01 | 3:34 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:24 | 1:44 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:05 | 4:01 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:50 | 4:12 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:47 | 3:59 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:03 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:07 | 2:26 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:22 | 1:58 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 27:31 | 3:59 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:06 | 2:02 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:02 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 55:15 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:50 | 1:06 |
| M. McTavish | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:45 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:05 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:59 | 1:41 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:43 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:42 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 1:04 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 1:02 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 1:51 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:40 | 0:56 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.2, ANA 2.7 | NSH 2, ANA 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 32.4, ANA 28.6 | NSH 43, ANA 35 |
| Win chance | NSH 58% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 6 | 1.04 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.3 | 4 | 0.96 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.2 | 8 | 0.91 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.1 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 4 | 0.93 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.1 | 4 | 0.59 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.0 | 4 | 0.59 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.8 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.5 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.