Game Recap: NSH 1, ANA 2, March 14, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH1

FinalFri, Mar 14, 2025Every game that night

ANA2

ANA beat NSH 2-1, with the chances close: 1.99 expected goals to 2.37. NSH outshot ANA 29 to 15. J. Vrana had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Dostal stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	1	1
ANA	0	1	1	2

2nd 15:52ANAT. Terry0.18 xG
3rd 4:25NSHJ. VranaPP0.07 xG
3rd 11:20ANAA. Killorn0.21 xG

Team Stats

NSHANA

29Shots on goal15

2.37Expected goals1.99

66Shot attempts45

255v5 shots on goal13

1/3Power play0/2

11Hits22

8Blocked shots23

4Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways11

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.37 xGANA 1.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH29 on goal, 1 scored

ANA15 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:32	3:06
J. Vrana	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	11:19	1:34
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:31	3:01
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	17:42	2:58
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	16:31	3:01
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	15:16	0:51
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:13	1:35
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:04	1:49
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	14:44	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:42	1:28
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:49	0:00
K. Bellows	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:16	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	23:41	1:37
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	20:29	1:53
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	18:12	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:07	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	17:37	0:02
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	15	13	2	.867	58:47	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:08	2:02
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	18:46	1:53
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:54	2:11
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:04	2:02
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	2	12:33	1:50
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:40	1:48
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:34	2:12
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:40	1:59
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:18	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	13:16	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	12:20	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	23:16	0:03
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:32	2:08
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	20:35	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	19:02	1:52
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	+2	0	17:50	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayFrank Vatrano ANA Turns 31 that day1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.2, ANA 2.8	NSH 1, ANA 2
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	NSH 31.9, ANA 27.6	NSH 29, ANA 15
Win chance	NSH 55%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	2	1.03	0	38%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.0	2	0.69	1	29%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.8	2	0.81	0	33%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	1	0.91	0	36%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	1	0.48	0	18%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.1	2	0.80	1	26%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	0	0.75	1	26%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	3	0.47	1	13%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	0	0.66	0	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	2.0	1	0.60	0	22%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.9	0	0.63	1	20%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	0	0.45	0	14%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	3	0.56	1	23%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.8	0	0.60	0	17%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	0	0.59	0	14%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	2	0.33	0	10%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.6	2	0.36	0	16%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.5	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NSH J. Vrana	1.4	4	0.40	1	20%	1
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	3	0.31	0	9%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	2	0.31	0	7%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.4	1	0.27	0	12%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.4	1	0.22	0	12%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	0	0.49	1	18%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.4	3	0.28	0	14%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	1	0.27	0	11%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.3	0	0.28	0	6%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	1	0.37	0	13%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	2	0.27	0	10%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.2	1	0.27	0	11%	0
NSH J. Oesterle	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	1.0	1	0.19	0	9%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	1	0.28	0	7%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	0	0.21	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.