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Game Recap
NSH3
BUF4
BUF beat NSH 4-3, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 2.01. J.Kulich led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). U. Luukkonen stopped 28 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Team Stats
NSHBUF
31Shots on goal27
2.01Expected goals2.73
61Shot attempts44
245v5 shots on goal24
0/4Power play0/2
25Hits23
8Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways13
8Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.01 xGBUF 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 4:06 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 2:18 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:05 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:19 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 2:56 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 2:19 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:36 | 4:30 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:20 | 4:54 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 4:41 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:42 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:08 |
| B. Skjei | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:53 | 2:59 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:02 | 4:23 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:25 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 57:59 | Loss |
| M. Murray | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Kulich | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 15:44 | 1:13 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:33 | 2:01 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 1:12 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:48 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:16 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | 1:49 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 1:55 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 1:07 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:16 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:55 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:16 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25:39 | 2:13 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 1:15 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 26:19 | 0:29 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.0, BUF 2.9 | NSH 3, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 30.5, BUF 29.2 | NSH 31, BUF 27 |
| Win chance | NSH 51% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.6 | 5 | 1.05 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 0 | 0.94 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.1 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.0 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.5 | 1 | 0.90 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.5 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.4 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.6 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.