Game Recap: NSH 2, CBJ 3, March 3, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalTue, Mar 3, 2026Every game that night

CBJ3

CBJ beat NSH 3-2, with the chances close: 3.08 expected goals to 3.49. C. Coyle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Greaves stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	1	1	0	2
CBJ	1	0	2	3

1st 14:23CBJA. Fantilli0.10 xG
1st 19:32NSHF. ForsbergPP0.83 xG
2nd 14:39NSHR. O'Reilly0.17 xG
3rd 1:52CBJS. MonahanSH0.15 xG
3rd 6:07CBJC. Coyle0.12 xG

Team Stats

NSHCBJ

25Shots on goal27

3.49Expected goals3.08

56Shot attempts67

175v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play0/4

12Hits14

16Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways11

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.49 xGCBJ 3.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH24 on goal, 2 scored

CBJ25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	22:38	2:31
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	20:23	1:36
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	18:36	2:37
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	2	17:34	2:38
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	20:43	0:29
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	18:28	1:32
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	15:36	0:28
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:20	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:58	0:28
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:34	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	7:38	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:03	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	26:52	2:35
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	22:46	0:05
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	21:44	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	19:15	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	17:53	0:31
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	27	24	3	.889	57:49	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	6	2	2	+2	0	22:11	5:08
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:29	2:14
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	18:05	5:12
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:58	5:03
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	16:55	5:06
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:48	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	15:33	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:10	2:11
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:44	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:39	2:11
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	7:49	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:28	2:03
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	19:48	2:16
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	26:49	5:01
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	21:04	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:54	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	11:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	23	21	2	.913	51:44	Win
E. Merzlikins	2	2	0	1.000	8:16

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg18:05L. Evangelista17:35E. Haula13:20

Line 2R. O'Reilly13:50J. Marchessault15:21S. Stamkos13:08

Line 3Z. L'Heureux7:35T. Jost10:06M. Bunting13:17

Line 4M. Wood10:54O. Wiesblatt6:53

Pair 1R. Josi21:43B. Skjei16:31

Pair 2N. Hague19:13N. Perbix14:29

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier14:20C. Sillinger14:37C. Coyle13:24

Line 2S. Monahan13:26K. Johnson12:59D. Heinen12:07

Line 3K. Marchenko12:53M. Marchment11:49A. Fantilli11:55

Line 4M. Wood7:19I. Lundestrom8:50D. Voronkov6:28

Pair 1E. Gudbranson16:43I. Provorov17:36

Pair 2D. Severson16:37D. Mateychuk16:32

Pair 3D. Fabbro14:16E. Zamula11:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDante Fabbro CBJ Faces NSH, his team until Oct 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.1, CBJ 3.5	NSH 2, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	NSH 28.8, CBJ 30.9	NSH 25, CBJ 27
Win chance	CBJ 58%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	3	0.89	1	35%	1
NSH R. Josi	3.2	1	0.89	0	24%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	1	0.86	1	31%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	1	0.78	1	29%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	2	0.82	1	35%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	0	0.63	0	28%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.62	1	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	4	0.84	1	27%	1
CBJ M. Marchment	2.1	1	0.76	1	28%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.9	6	0.71	1	22%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	0	0.46	0	19%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	2	0.45	0	14%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	3	0.63	1	20%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	2	0.37	0	12%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.41	0	17%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.6	2	0.43	0	18%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.5	1	0.40	0	9%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	2	0.49	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	1	0.50	1	12%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.4	1	0.28	0	13%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.3	0	0.37	0	17%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.2	1	0.21	0	8%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	1	0.22	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.2	1	0.36	0	15%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.2	2	0.28	0	13%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.21	0	6%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	2	0.27	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	2	0.38	1	11%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	1	0.28	0	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	3	0.23	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.24	0	7%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	0	0.14	0	6%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.6	1	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.