Game Recap: NSH 4, DAL 1, December 12, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

DAL1

NSH beat DAL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 2.53. DAL outshot NSH 36 to 26. R. O'Reilly led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Del Gaizo had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Annunen stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	3	1	4
DAL	0	0	1	1

2nd 11:40NSHR. O'Reilly0.23 xG
2nd 13:33NSHT. Novak0.19 xG
2nd 14:39NSHR. O'Reilly0.05 xG
3rd 10:34DALL. Bichsel0.02 xG
3rd 16:47NSHZ. L'HeureuxEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

NSHDAL

26Shots on goal36

4.12Expected goals2.53

48Shot attempts63

225v5 shots on goal31

0/1Power play0/1

20Hits18

18Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways12

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 4.12 xGDAL 2.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH26 on goal, 4 scored

DAL35 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	2	1	3	3	1	1	+3	0	16:10	0:53
J. Marchessault	RW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+2	0	18:23	1:14
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	0	0	4	+1	2	16:28	1:16
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	14:56	0:43
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:27	1:07
Z. L'Heureux	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+2	0	13:04	0:44
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	17:40	1:17
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:02	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:53	0:46
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:39	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:35	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:44	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+4	0	22:02	0:00
K. Gravel	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	20:00	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:36	0:55
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:58	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	17:24	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	16:59	1:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	15:46	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	14:14	1:46
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	0	18:25	1:46
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	17:40	0:14
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	17:12	1:45
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:41	0:15
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	16:41	1:52
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	15:08	0:13
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	14:21	0:01
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:32	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:56	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	10:49	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	2	15:46	0:01
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	26:24	1:59
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	24:10	0:07
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:56	0:01
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	17:40	0:00
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	15:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	25	22	3	.880	59:10	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMavrik Bourque NSH First game back in Dallas, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
Old teamMatt Duchene DAL Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20230 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.6, DAL 3.3	NSH 4, DAL 1
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	NSH 27.4, DAL 31.4	NSH 26, DAL 36
Win chance	DAL 62%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	2	0.85	0	34%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.9	5	0.76	0	30%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.7	3	0.65	2	29%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.5	3	0.86	0	30%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	0	0.75	1	30%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.4	0	0.54	0	17%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	1	0.79	0	32%	0
DAL M. Marchment	2.1	4	0.68	0	24%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	2	0.41	0	11%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	5	0.67	0	13%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	0	0.77	0	27%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.9	2	0.69	1	22%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.8	1	0.39	0	14%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.7	2	0.48	0	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.6	3	0.58	3	21%	2
NSH T. Novak	1.5	2	0.46	1	18%	1
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	0	0.62	1	20%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	4	0.43	0	17%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.4	2	0.32	0	8%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	3	0.25	0	5%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	0	0.24	0	13%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	1	0.13	0	4%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	0	0.21	0	6%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.36	1	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.13	1	4%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.1	3	0.25	1	10%	1
NSH M. Jankowski	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.0	5	0.18	0	3%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	1	0.21	0	9%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
DAL M. Bourque	0.9	1	0.24	0	11%	0
NSH K. Gravel	0.9	0	0.09	1	3%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.8	0	0.32	0	10%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.21	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.