Game Recap: NSH 1, DAL 5, April 3, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NSH1

FinalThu, Apr 3, 2025Every game that night

DAL5

DAL beat NSH 5-1, with the chances close: 3.42 expected goals to 2.80. M. Marchment led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Barron had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Oettinger stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	1	0	1
DAL	0	1	4	5

2nd 4:37NSHS. Stamkos0.04 xG
2nd 19:24DALM. Granlund0.06 xG
3rd 0:39DALM. Marchment0.06 xG
3rd 5:47DALR. Hintz0.14 xG
3rd 9:45DALW. Johnston0.17 xG
3rd 12:42DALL. Bichsel0.12 xG

Team Stats

NSHDAL

29Shots on goal27

2.80Expected goals3.42

49Shot attempts56

225v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/4

34Hits19

17Blocked shots8

10Penalty minutes6

8Giveaways12

9Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.80 xGDAL 3.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH27 on goal, 1 scored

DAL27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	2	17:18	2:44
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	4	4	2	0	0	16:45	2:41
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-2	0	17:48	2:38
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	16:32	2:29
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	15:57	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	8	15:37	1:16
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:19	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	13:47	1:22
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	+1	0	12:45	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	12:32	1:20
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	11:18	0:11
K. Bellows	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	10:13	0:57
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:47	2:37
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	22:11	1:23
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	5	4	2	-3	0	21:32	0:22
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-4	0	20:36	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:20	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	15:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	27	22	5	.815	60:00	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+3	0	18:13	4:48
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	1	3	0	+2	0	17:16	4:17
M. Duchene	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	15:57	3:56
M. Marchment	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	15:52	3:44
W. Johnston	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:07	3:42
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	0	17:05	4:07
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:37	3:31
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:15	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:44	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:52	0:00
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:47	2:48
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11:01	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	1	0	1	4	3	0	+2	2	14:50	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	+2	0	23:12	1:01
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:16	5:04
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	0	19:05	0:27
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	17:47	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:15	2:35

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	29	28	1	.966	59:49	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMavrik Bourque NSH First game back in Dallas, his team until Apr 20261 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, DAL 3.3	NSH 1, DAL 5
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	NSH 29.5, DAL 27.6	NSH 29, DAL 27
Win chance	DAL 59%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	4	0.83	1	32%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.6	1	1.04	2	33%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	1	0.83	1	30%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	0	0.99	2	32%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	2	0.68	1	29%	1
DAL T. Harley	2.1	1	0.66	0	18%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	3	0.47	0	17%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	4	0.94	1	32%	1
NSH M. Bunting	2.0	1	0.53	0	21%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	4	0.36	0	11%	0
DAL M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.66	2	23%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.9	0	0.87	2	28%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	2	0.60	0	22%	0
DAL M. Granlund	1.7	1	0.73	1	16%	1
NSH M. Gaizo	1.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0
NSH J. Vrana	1.5	1	0.37	0	19%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.5	1	0.24	1	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	0	0.34	0	14%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.4	1	0.26	0	11%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.4	5	0.22	0	8%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.3	1	0.24	0	10%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.2	3	0.42	0	15%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	3	0.34	0	9%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.1	1	0.38	1	14%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	2	0.31	0	10%	0
DAL C. Ceci	1.0	1	0.30	0	6%	0
NSH J. Oesterle	0.9	1	0.14	0	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	4	0.21	1	6%	1
DAL M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.16	0	5%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.25	0	9%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.6	0	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.