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Game Recap
NSH2
DAL3
DAL beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.37 expected goals to 3.01. W. Johnston led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Oettinger stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 14:26NSHM. BuntingPP0.12 xG
- 1st 15:35NSHS. Stamkos0.13 xG
- 2nd 16:18DALW. JohnstonPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 5:31DALN. Bastian0.54 xG
- OT 1:47DALJ. Robertson0.40 xG
Team Stats
NSHDAL
27Shots on goal25
3.01Expected goals3.37
48Shot attempts58
205v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play1/3
26Hits20
16Blocked shots13
11Penalty minutes11
14Giveaways14
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.01 xGDAL 3.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:20 | 2:22 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 3:33 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:52 | 2:21 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 2:12 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:02 | 3:35 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:50 | 3:36 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:05 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 3:34 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 29:09 | 3:46 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:13 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:01 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:07 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 5:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 61:39 | OT loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:05 | 2:13 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:44 | 2:05 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 2:11 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:03 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 | 2:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:23 | 2:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:05 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:30 | 1:53 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:05 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:04 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:36 | 2:05 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 23:22 | 2:04 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:24 | 1:53 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:04 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 61:37 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1R. O'Reilly16:00L. Evangelista14:48S. Stamkos15:38
Line 2F. Forsberg14:16E. Haula12:38J. Marchessault11:43
Line 3M. McCarron12:58C. Smith12:05M. Bunting11:23
Line 4T. Jost9:03M. Wood9:05Z. L'Heureux9:11
Pair 2N. Hague18:01N. Blankenburg14:09
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson19:50W. Johnston18:09M. Bourque17:59
Line 2J. Benn13:30M. Duchene16:18S. Steel14:50
Line 3N. Bastian8:22A. Hyry8:18O. Bäck7:21
Line 4A. Erne8:12J. Hryckowian8:22C. Blackwell7:37
Pair 1E. Lindell17:51M. Heiskanen19:19
Pair 2N. Lundkvist16:08T. Harley19:28
Pair 3L. Bichsel14:07I. Lyubushkin12:39
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.7, DAL 3.5 | NSH 2, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 26.4, DAL 28.1 | NSH 27, DAL 25 |
| Win chance | DAL 63% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.4 | 2 | 1.23 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.1 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 2.9 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 5 | 0.93 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.0 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.9 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.0 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.