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Game Recap
NSH0
DET3
DET beat NSH 3-0 despite fewer good chances: 3.81 expected goals to 4.50. NSH outshot DET 42 to 22. R. Josi had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. C. Talbot stopped 42 of 42.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 1:02DETJ. Compher0.09 xG
- 3rd 6:35DETA. Copp0.44 xG
- 3rd 19:40DETD. LarkinEN0.67 xG
Team Stats
NSHDET
42Shots on goal22
4.50Expected goals3.81
89Shot attempts46
255v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play0/2
19Hits22
12Blocked shots31
4Penalty minutes6
21Giveaways21
8Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 4.50 xGDET 3.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:33 | 3:54 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 4:06 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:13 | 1:45 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:27 | 4:11 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:43 | 4:07 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:09 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 1:41 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 1:46 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:13 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:07 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 1:43 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 27:02 | 4:07 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:01 | 1:54 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:07 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:10 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 57:21 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:03 | 2:22 |
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:50 | 2:25 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:45 | 2:21 |
| A. Copp | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:05 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 2:22 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 1:35 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:30 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:02 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:03 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:31 | 1:37 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 1:33 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +2 | 2 | 25:47 | 2:38 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 25:33 | 1:22 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:05 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.6, DET 3.1 | NSH 0, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 33.2, DET 29.2 | NSH 42, DET 22 |
| Win chance | NSH 57% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 4.4 | 6 | 1.19 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 3.8 | 5 | 1.16 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.7 | 3 | 0.96 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.7 | 2 | 1.07 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.5 | 9 | 1.06 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.3 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 3.2 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.5 | 4 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.4 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.3 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 2.0 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET O. Maatta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.