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Game Recap
NSH2
FLA6
FLA beat NSH 6-2, with the chances close: 3.20 expected goals to 2.47. FLA outshot NSH 34 to 18. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). U. Balinskis had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. S. Bobrovsky stopped 16 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| FLA | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 3:33FLAS. Reinhart0.01 xG
- 1st 5:14FLAM. Tkachuk0.11 xG
- 2nd 1:56FLAE. Rodrigues0.06 xG
- 2nd 11:18FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.17 xG
- 2nd 13:52NSHS. StamkosPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 19:32FLAC. Verhaeghe0.20 xG
- 3rd 11:23FLAT. NosekPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 11:51NSHJ. Parssinen0.09 xG
Team Stats
NSHFLA
18Shots on goal34
2.47Expected goals3.20
48Shot attempts67
85v5 shots on goal24
1/5Power play2/7
39Hits21
13Blocked shots10
22Penalty minutes18
12Giveaways16
2Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.47 xGFLA 3.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:33 | 4:45 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:19 | 4:48 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:30 | 2:09 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:54 | 1:30 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:55 | 4:21 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:58 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:57 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:04 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 13:04 | 3:04 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:47 | 2:01 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 12:43 | 0:05 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:03 | 0:02 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:29 | 4:44 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:20 | 0:08 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:07 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:33 | 2:12 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:07 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 18:02 | 1:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 34 | 28 | 6 | .824 | 59:45 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:51 | 5:17 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:41 | 6:16 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:41 | 6:00 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:46 | 3:37 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 5:28 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:36 | 4:28 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 4:13 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:59 | 1:06 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 1:06 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:20 | 1:06 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:57 | 7:45 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:25 | 3:58 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:24 | 3:25 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 59:42 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.7, FLA 3.3 | NSH 2, FLA 6 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 28.3, FLA 31.5 | NSH 18, FLA 34 |
| Win chance | FLA 60% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.3 | 3 | 0.88 | 3 | 34% | 2 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 0 | 0.82 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.2 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 4 | 1.05 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.6 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.6 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.6 | 5 | 0.76 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 3 | 1.04 | 3 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.7 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH P. Tomasino | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.8 | 4 | 0.16 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.