Game Recap: NSH 4, LAK 1, April 2, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalThu, Apr 2, 2026Every game that night

LAK1

NSH beat LAK 4-1, with the chances close: 3.95 expected goals to 3.24. NSH outshot LAK 25 to 15. J. Marchessault led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Jost had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6.

Team Stats

NSHLAK

25Shots on goal15

3.95Expected goals3.24

71Shot attempts67

245v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play0/1

11Hits16

9Blocked shots10

2Penalty minutes2

9Giveaways11

3Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.68 xGLAK 3.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH33 on goal, 4 scored

LAK32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	8:47	4:00
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:09	1:22
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	8:32	4:00
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:15	4:14
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+3	0	8:10	4:14
Z. L'Heureux	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	8:00	0:45
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	7:05	1:33
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	7:44	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:59	1:36
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:06	0:03
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5:20	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	5:03	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	2	10:47	1:16
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	10:24	4:13
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	8:31	0:28
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:09	0:07
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:11	0:09
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	8:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	15	14	1	.933	29:43
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:30	4:50
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	9:00	4:33
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	10:37	4:28
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:53	0:58
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:56	4:24
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	8:14	0:50
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	6:38	1:01
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	6:15	0:21
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:26	0:00
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	5:13	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4:56	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4:36	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	10:46	0:13
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:40	2:14
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	9:58	3:28
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:52	0:20
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:27	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	2	8:23	0:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	23	19	4	.826	29:52
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1J. Marchessault15:18F. Forsberg14:29M. Wood11:54

Line 2S. Stamkos14:47R. O'Reilly14:03Z. L'Heureux13:11

Line 3F. Svechkov12:00R. Schaefer8:05J. Kemell8:12

Line 4L. Evangelista8:59T. Jost11:48E. Haula10:28

Pair 1R. Josi19:27B. Skjei20:08

Pair 2J. Barron14:32A. Wilsby14:36

Pair 3N. Hague15:08N. Perbix13:40

LAK

Line 1Q. Byfield17:24A. Laferriere15:39T. Moore14:30

Line 2A. Kopitar14:33A. Panarin14:19A. Kempe13:30

Line 3J. Armia11:38S. Laughton12:22J. Wright11:35

Line 4M. Joseph6:19T. Ward7:13S. Helenius6:13

Pair 1J. Edmundson14:36B. Clarke14:19

Pair 2D. Doughty17:23B. Dumoulin15:57

Pair 3M. Anderson18:23C. Ceci14:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamErik Haula LAK First game against NSH since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, LAK 3.1	NSH 4, LAK 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NSH 26.4, LAK 29.7	NSH 25, LAK 15
Win chance	LAK 54%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	3.2	1	1.25	1	36%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	1	0.90	1	34%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	3	0.94	1	34%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.8	2	0.62	0	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.6	0	0.57	0	23%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.77	1	17%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	1	0.64	0	23%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	3	0.75	1	32%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	2	0.67	2	27%	1
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	2	0.55	0	11%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	0	0.54	0	15%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	2	0.80	1	26%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.7	1	0.42	0	17%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.6	5	0.30	0	13%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	0	0.79	0	24%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.5	1	0.40	1	16%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	1	0.41	1	19%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	0	0.49	0	12%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.4	0	0.39	1	9%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.4	2	0.25	1	11%	1
LAK J. Wright	1.4	1	0.16	0	9%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.2	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.2	1	0.19	0	11%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	3	0.23	0	5%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.0	0	0.20	0	10%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	0	0.28	0	9%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.27	0	6%	0
LAK M. Joseph	0.9	0	0.26	0	8%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.8	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.19	0	11%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	0	0.18	0	8%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	1	0.18	1	5%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.