Game Recap: NSH 3, MIN 5, December 31, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH3

FinalTue, Dec 31, 2024Every game that night

MIN5

MIN beat NSH 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.09 expected goals to 4.19. NSH outshot MIN 46 to 38. M. Rossi led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Rossi had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 43 of 46.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	2	1	0	3
MIN	1	3	1	5

1st 7:54MINM. Rossi0.07 xG
1st 11:00NSHC. Sissons0.11 xG
1st 15:14NSHJ. Marchessault0.16 xG
2nd 6:19MINM. ZuccarelloPP0.18 xG
2nd 8:57MINJ. Brodin0.01 xG
2nd 12:01NSHR. O'Reilly0.42 xG
2nd 17:08MIND. ChisholmPP0.05 xG
3rd 7:07MINM. RossiPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

NSHMIN

46Shots on goal38

4.19Expected goals3.09

74Shot attempts60

325v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play3/6

19Hits14

9Blocked shots13

35Penalty minutes16

11Giveaways18

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 4.19 xGMIN 3.09 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH45 on goal, 3 scored

MIN36 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	22:24	1:49
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	22:04	2:00
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	2	20:53	1:30
G. Nyquist	RW	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	19:51	0:11
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	11:46	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	2	21:28	1:45
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:52	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:44	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:38	0:15
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:42	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:11	0:30
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	20	1:54	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	2	24:06	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	2	19:57	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	7	1	1	0	2	32:30	2:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:31	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	13:58	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	38	33	5	.868	56:00	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rossi	C	2	1	3	7	0	0	+1	0	19:18	5:46
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	2	20:58	6:25
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	19:24	5:10
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:22	3:37
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:26	3:06
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	5	15:26	1:37
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	20:34	3:13
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	18:23	5:40
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-2	2	13:41	0:09
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:16	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:26	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	5:43	0:00
J. Brodin	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	0	23:58	0:27
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	28:51	4:09
D. Chisholm	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:39	2:07
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:58	0:01
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	2	15:51	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:53	2:58

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	46	43	3	.935	59:34	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMichael McCarron MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20261 SOG
Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, MIN 3.3	NSH 3, MIN 5
Total goals	6.1	8
Shots on goal	NSH 28.3, MIN 30.3	NSH 46, MIN 38
Win chance	MIN 59%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	4	0.91	0	31%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.0	2	0.78	2	29%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	5	0.83	0	31%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.7	4	0.72	1	31%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.5	7	0.73	0	16%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	3	0.78	1	31%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.2	1	0.89	2	23%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	1	0.49	1	21%	0
MIN M. Rossi	2.0	7	0.69	3	26%	2
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	2	0.41	0	15%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	3	0.41	2	10%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.7	4	0.39	2	10%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.7	1	0.46	0	13%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	5	0.57	1	21%	1
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.5	4	0.40	0	16%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	2	0.42	1	16%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.4	2	0.55	1	12%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.3	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.3	6	0.58	1	18%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.3	1	0.41	0	16%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	1	0.24	1	7%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.2	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NSH V. Hinostroza	1.2	1	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	2	0.42	1	17%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	3	0.32	1	7%	1
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	3	0.24	0	15%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	4	0.13	0	3%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	1	0.23	0	12%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.0	2	0.25	1	11%	1
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.9	0	0.09	0	7%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.19	0	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	1	0.15	0	5%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	0	0.16	0	4%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.8 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.