Game Recap: NSH 2, NJD 3 (OT), January 29, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

Final/OTThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

NJD3

NJD beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.12 expected goals to 2.88. N. Hischier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Markstrom stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	1	0	1	0	2
NJD	0	1	1	1	3

1st 5:07NSHM. McCarron0.52 xG
2nd 10:01NJDD. Hamilton0.15 xG
3rd 1:34NSHF. Forsberg0.09 xG
3rd 10:42NJDJ. Bratt0.11 xG
OT 0:42NJDN. Hischier0.06 xG

Team Stats

NSHNJD

29Shots on goal35

2.88Expected goals3.12

68Shot attempts72

235v5 shots on goal28

0/2Power play0/3

17Hits27

14Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways16

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.88 xGNJD 3.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH28 on goal, 2 scored

NJD35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	19:26	3:31
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	3	4	0	0	16:28	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	4	16:00	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:14	2:59
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	22:04	2:57
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:30	1:05
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:58	1:01
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	5	2	1	-2	0	14:08	2:55
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:50	1:03
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:20	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:52	0:15
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	2	16:03	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	28:27	0:14
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	-1	0	28:08	3:06
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:57	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:52	0:54
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	35	32	3	.914	60:42	OT loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	7	1	1	+1	0	26:09	4:41
J. Bratt	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	20:51	4:37
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	1	1	4	3	3	+1	2	18:46	1:32
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:10	1:05
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	15:48	0:39
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	19:41	4:03
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:12	4:39
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	0	13:30	0:17
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:11	1:16
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	8:36	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	8:18	0:39
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2:27	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	2	20:43	3:58
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	21:25	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	21:20	0:30
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	18:51	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:59	2:04
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	29	27	2	.931	60:38	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg15:20L. Evangelista17:18R. O'Reilly15:14

Line 2C. Smith14:53M. McCarron13:46J. Marchessault12:11

Line 3E. Haula11:35M. Bunting11:47S. Stamkos11:08

Line 4T. Jost9:34M. Wood7:37O. Wiesblatt9:20

Pair 1R. Josi22:20B. Skjei24:05

Pair 2A. Wilsby14:43N. Perbix12:56

Pair 3J. Barron11:39N. Blankenburg14:14

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier18:49A. Gritsyuk17:14L. Hameenaho15:09

Line 2T. Meier15:34J. Bratt16:00D. Mercer13:15

Line 3C. Brown11:53P. Cotter13:13L. Glendening6:23

Line 4E. Dadonov11:55J. Hughes2:27

Pair 1J. Kovacevic19:50J. Siegenthaler19:00

Pair 2D. Hamilton16:03B. Pesce16:41

Pair 3B. Dillon13:44S. Nemec14:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLuke Evangelista NJD First game against NSH since he left (his team until Apr 2026)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.0, NJD 3.4	NSH 2, NJD 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	NSH 27.1, NJD 30.4	NSH 29, NJD 35
Win chance	NJD 56%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	0	1.25	0	38%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.1	5	0.67	0	30%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	4	0.91	1	35%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.9	3	0.85	0	19%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.6	5	0.64	1	16%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	7	0.94	1	32%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	5	0.80	0	34%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	1	0.96	1	26%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	2	0.64	0	18%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.1	4	0.47	1	17%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	2	0.85	0	27%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	1.9	3	0.53	1	25%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	2	0.48	0	20%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	2	0.50	1	22%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	0	0.38	0	9%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	2	0.51	0	18%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.4	2	0.48	1	17%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.4	0	0.41	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	0	0.24	1	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.22	1	10%	1
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	2	0.28	0	6%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	2	0.21	1	4%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.1	1	0.36	0	14%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.0	1	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	2	0.20	0	8%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	1.0	0	0.26	0	9%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.26	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.7	2	0.20	0	11%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.6	1	0.14	0	5%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.