Game Recap: NSH 1, OTT 3, December 7, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH1

FinalSat, Dec 7, 2024Every game that night

OTT3

OTT beat NSH 3-1, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 2.60. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Sissons had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Ullmark stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	0	1	1
OTT	0	2	1	3

2nd 5:07OTTJ. Bernard-Docker0.06 xG
2nd 16:52OTTC. Giroux0.09 xG
3rd 12:37OTTN. Cousins0.26 xG
3rd 18:03NSHF. Svechkov0.07 xG

Team Stats

NSHOTT

37Shots on goal30

2.60Expected goals2.59

76Shot attempts57

325v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play0/3

25Hits24

17Blocked shots16

11Penalty minutes7

11Giveaways8

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.60 xGOTT 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH36 on goal, 1 scored

OTT29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Jankowski	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	14:45	0:09
F. Svechkov	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:16	0:54
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	2	12:38	0:48
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:00	0:50
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	17:48	0:57
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-2	0	16:21	0:58
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	15:53	0:53
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:47	1:01
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:54	1:01
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	5	1	2	0	0	13:22	0:09
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5	13:10	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	12:36	0:09
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	2	26:04	1:03
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:29	0:50
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:24	0:09
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	18:12	0:09
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	17:49	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	15:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	27	3	.900	57:53	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	1	1	1	+3	2	16:33	4:24
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	4	5	3	+1	0	17:21	0:28
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	17:14	0:23
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	12:08	1:45
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	9:31	1:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	0	19:21	4:49
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:35	3:51
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	18:20	4:34
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:56	0:26
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	13:40	1:05
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:46	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	5	10:20	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	14:08	0:16
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	23:09	0:58
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	22:40	4:31
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	22:22	1:14
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:41	0:16
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	15:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	37	36	1	.973	59:55	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, OTT 3.0	NSH 1, OTT 3
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	NSH 28.1, OTT 31.8	NSH 37, OTT 30
Win chance	OTT 52%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.0	5	0.92	0	33%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	4	1.01	0	39%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.9	0	0.76	0	33%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	0	1.04	0	23%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	1	0.91	0	35%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	1	1.02	2	29%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	2	0.86	0	27%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.2	3	0.68	0	32%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.1	2	0.77	1	26%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	3	0.54	0	12%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	0	0.44	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	1	0.52	0	13%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.9	3	0.51	0	9%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.7	4	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.5	1	0.74	0	22%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.5	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.5	3	0.53	0	20%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.4	0	0.33	1	17%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	1	0.36	1	18%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	2	0.20	0	6%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.3	1	0.35	0	14%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	4	0.23	1	9%	1
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.29	0	14%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.2	0	0.30	0	5%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.1	3	0.27	1	12%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.1	3	0.31	1	13%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	2	0.26	1	14%	1
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	5	0.29	0	12%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	2	0.24	0	9%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.0	1	0.16	0	4%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.0	3	0.26	0	7%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.32	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.14	0	4%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	0.8	2	0.17	0	5%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	2	0.15	1	4%	1
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.