Game Recap: NSH 2, OTT 3 (SO), October 10, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NSH2

Final/SOSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

OTT3

OTT beat NSH 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 1.99. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Wood had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Ullmark stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NSH	2	0	0	0	2
OTT	0	1	1	1	3

1st 8:50NSHR. Colton0.21 xG
1st 13:10NSHJ. MarchessaultPP0.10 xG
2nd 9:29OTTT. StützlePP0.17 xG
3rd 18:37OTTD. Batherson0.26 xG

Team Stats

NSHOTT

18Shots on goal20

1.99Expected goals2.71

46Shot attempts65

105v5 shots on goal9

1/6Power play1/6

34Hits20

26Blocked shots15

12Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways17

8Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 1.99 xGOTT 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH17 on goal, 2 scored

OTT20 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	-1	0	19:01	4:54
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	17:53	4:46
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	14:50	2:17
V. Pinchuk	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:10	2:12
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	8:22	0:47
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	22:07	5:03
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	20:36	4:44
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:08	0:01
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	15:22	2:12
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	13:57	0:10
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	12:33	1:24
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:43	0:09
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	0	5	0	2	24:19	4:55
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	21:05	2:26
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	20:24	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	6	2	+1	0	19:07	0:12
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	18:54	0:12
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	18:22	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Murray	20	18	2	.900	64:57	OT loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	4	1	1	+1	0	26:06	4:36
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	21:41	2:30
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:16	3:39
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	19:45	3:46
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:13	2:11
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	18:42	3:31
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:47	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:44	2:21
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:58	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:17	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:30	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	7:57	1:38
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	2	28:43	3:06
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	24:30	0:13
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	21:06	0:00
C. Yakemchuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:52	2:04
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:55	0:00
H. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8:58	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	18	16	2	.889	63:43	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos11:41J. Marchessault12:28R. O'Reilly12:13

Line 2J. Drury13:29A. Edstrom13:16R. Schaefer10:34

Line 3F. Forsberg11:57M. Wood9:49N. Hoglander11:09

Line 4A. Kerfoot8:38V. Pinchuk8:58R. Colton7:10

Pair 1J. Struble17:29A. Wilsby17:19

Pair 2R. Josi14:09N. Hague14:40

Pair 3B. Skjei12:31N. Perbix12:15

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson13:13T. Stützle13:59A. Burakovsky9:23

Line 2D. Cozens13:08R. Greig12:45N. Cousins9:55

Line 3C. Giroux12:30S. Pinto11:31M. Amadio12:11

Line 4W. Foegele9:02S. Halliday6:19F. Zetterlund7:56

Pair 1T. Chabot19:55J. Spence18:46

Pair 2C. Yakemchuk14:26T. Kleven14:57

Pair 3N. Matinpalo10:54H. Stanley8:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	+120	-148	3	Over
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	-105	-115	3	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-135	+110	1	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+140	-150	2	Under
OTT S. Pinto	2.5	+122	-150	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+126	-140	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	2.5	+150	-180	3	Over
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	+105	-115	4	Over
OTT A. Burakovsky	1.5	-125	–	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	-105	+100	2	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.5	+104	-110	1	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	+120	-155	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	1.5	-135	+105	3	Over
OTT J. Spence	1.5	-104	-110	2	Over
NSH M. Wood	1.5	+125	-145	4	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-105	-130	1	Under
OTT R. Greig	1.5	-115	-105	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-135	+120	0	Under
OTT W. Foegele	1.5	+135	-185	0	Under

4 of 33 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	+295	–	0	Under
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+950	-1200	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+420	-500	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+725	-1600	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+195	-225	1	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+220	-285	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+380	-600	1	Over
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2100	-4000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-1000	1	Over
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+350	-450	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+575	-1200	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+190	-210	1	Over
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	+155	–	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+110	-150	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+176	-190	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+250	-275	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+320	-390	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-110	-110	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+210	-225	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+110	-145	1	Over
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
OTT T. Stützle	1.5	+186	-220	2	Over
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	-115	–	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+130	-135	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+165	-185	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	-170	+140	1	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	-132	+110	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-160	+130	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+154	-165	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-132	+120	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-132	+115	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+106	-130	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-125	+115	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	-130	+100	1	Over

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+380	-650	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+200	-295	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+275	-350	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+210	-300	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+450	-1200	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+340	-550	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+240	-350	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+235	-325	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+375	-400	1	Over
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+210	-240	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	26.5	-125	-105	0	Under
OTT L. Ullmark	22.5	-105	-120	16	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.7, OTT 3.4	NSH 2, OTT 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	NSH 24.5, OTT 31.3	NSH 18, OTT 20
Win chance	OTT 62%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	1	0.96	0	36%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.6	4	1.11	2	32%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.6	3	0.66	1	24%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	0	0.84	1	35%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.4	0	0.70	1	27%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.4	2	0.80	1	19%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	3	0.87	1	30%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	3	0.67	1	16%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	3	0.66	1	28%	1
OTT C. Giroux	2.1	2	0.73	0	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	0	0.84	0	27%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.42	0	17%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.8	0	0.48	0	17%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.7	2	0.46	0	9%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.6	1	0.32	1	14%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	1	0.52	0	22%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.5	0	0.45	0	15%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.4	0	0.31	0	16%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	4	0.43	0	19%	0
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.4	1	0.42	0	8%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.4	1	0.28	0	6%	0
OTT A. Burakovsky	1.2	0	0.46	0	16%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.2	1	0.34	0	9%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.1	1	0.29	0	11%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.0	2	0.29	0	14%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	2	0.26	0	3%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.0	0	0.20	0	12%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.12	0	3%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.8	0	0.33	1	12%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.15	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.