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Game Recap
NSH1
PHI4
PHI beat NSH 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.02 expected goals to 3.23. NSH outshot PHI 33 to 18. T. Zegras led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Drysdale had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Vladar stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 2nd 12:45PHIT. Zegras0.05 xG
- 2nd 15:41PHIJ. Drysdale0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:03NSHM. Wood0.10 xG
- 3rd 7:00PHIT. ZegrasPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 15:54PHIT. KonecnyEN0.52 xG
Team Stats
NSHPHI
33Shots on goal18
3.23Expected goals2.02
72Shot attempts41
285v5 shots on goal16
0/2Power play1/1
21Hits21
12Blocked shots21
4Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways17
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.23 xGPHI 2.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:52 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:31 | 0:49 |
| M. Wood | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:44 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:00 | 3:10 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:51 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:11 | 3:11 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 3:10 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:52 | 3:10 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:38 | 1:47 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:52 | 2:13 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:06 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 58:31 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:47 | 0:03 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:43 | 0:03 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:29 | 0:03 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:03 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5:17 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:52 | 0:03 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vladar | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 59:52 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1R. O'Reilly12:35L. Evangelista15:44F. Forsberg11:56
Line 2O. Wiesblatt14:24C. Smith12:47M. McCarron11:55
Line 3S. Stamkos13:49J. Marchessault11:50F. Svechkov13:58
Line 4M. Bunting13:33M. Wood11:57E. Haula14:32
Pair 2N. Hague18:09N. Blankenburg17:03
Pair 3J. Barron17:14S. Stastney16:48
PHI
Line 1B. Brink16:40T. Foerster14:59N. Cates15:03
Line 2T. Zegras18:23M. Michkov14:32C. Dvorak13:45
Line 3N. Deslauriers7:37R. Abols14:21G. Hathaway9:48
Line 4T. Konecny14:45O. Tippett14:51S. Couturier3:46
Pair 1T. Sanheim21:21C. York20:12
Pair 2N. Seeler17:03J. Drysdale18:28
Pair 3N. Juulsen14:15E. Andrae15:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.0, PHI 3.0 | NSH 1, PHI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 26.1, PHI 27.1 | NSH 33, PHI 18 |
| Win chance | NSH 50% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.0 | 2 | 0.97 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.4 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.4 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.3 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.1 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.1 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.8 | 3 | 0.74 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.8 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.7 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.