Game Recap: NSH 2, PIT 3 (OT), October 24, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

Final/OTSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night

PIT3

PIT beat NSH 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.13 expected goals to 2.60. PIT outshot NSH 37 to 26. H. Lapierre had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. A. Silovs stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NSH	1	1	0	0	2
PIT	0	1	1	1	3

1st 9:24NSHS. Stamkos0.21 xG
2nd 0:18PITC. Dewar0.18 xG
2nd 6:40NSHJ. Struble0.11 xG
3rd 18:54PITR. Rakell0.12 xG
OT 3:44PITV. Koivunen0.14 xG

Team Stats

NSHPIT

26Shots on goal37

2.60Expected goals4.13

43Shot attempts73

255v5 shots on goal31

0/1Power play0/1

26Hits11

19Blocked shots8

2Penalty minutes2

24Giveaways12

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.60 xGPIT 4.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH26 on goal, 2 scored

PIT37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	19:42	1:07
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:00	1:45
M. Wood	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	14:18	0:22
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	9:28	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:28	1:38
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:06	0:53
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:26	0:11
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:19	0:43
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	5	2	+1	0	16:27	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	15:56	1:06
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:10	0:00
J. Struble	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	16:09	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	2	28:37	1:38
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	23:10	0:15
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+1	0	20:42	0:22
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	17:16	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	37	34	3	.919	63:44	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	19:45	1:10
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	19:38	1:11
V. Koivunen	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	16:28	1:10
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	16:26	0:46
E. Soderblom	LW	0	1	1	3	3	1	+1	0	13:52	0:00
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	2	13:25	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:31	1:12
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:33	0:50
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:54	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:04	0:49
A. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	12:43	0:00
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:15	0:48
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	26:12	1:08
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	22:33	0:52
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:35	0:04
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:13	0:00
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:08	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	26	24	2	.923	61:29	Win
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:30R. O'Reilly16:11M. Wood13:40

Line 2F. Forsberg16:14M. Bourque15:23J. Marchessault13:30

Line 3J. Drury14:55A. Edstrom13:16R. Colton14:44

Line 4A. Kerfoot13:20N. Hoglander9:11V. Pinchuk4:54

Pair 1R. Josi23:48A. Wilsby20:33

Pair 2B. Skjei17:42N. Perbix15:22

Pair 3J. Struble15:31N. Hague15:01

PIT

Line 1R. Rakell14:18T. Novak15:41S. Crosby14:50

Line 2C. Dewar13:17N. Robertson14:04E. Soderblom13:04

Line 3H. Lapierre13:49A. Hayes12:43V. Koivunen12:10

Line 4A. Kuzmenko12:15R. McGroarty11:27B. Lizotte13:32

Pair 1E. Karlsson20:13S. Stastney17:59

Pair 2D. Carlile18:55K. Korczak17:05

Pair 3K. Letang17:35I. Solovyov15:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 17 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	+105	-130	2	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-125	+100	1	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+125	-140	2	Under
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	-130	+110	4	Over
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	+105	-115	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+136	-155	3	Over
PIT A. Kuzmenko	1.5	-120	-110	0	Under
PIT D. Carlile	1.5	+110	-140	1	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	1.5	-175	+160	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	1.5	+110	-115	1	Under
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-150	+120	2	Over
NSH M. Wood	1.5	+120	-125	3	Over
PIT N. Robertson	1.5	+110	-105	2	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-110	-120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-140	+130	2	Over
PIT T. Novak	1.5	-170	+130	2	Over
PIT V. Koivunen	1.5	+125	-150	3	Over

4 of 30 overs hit (13%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+575	-900	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+600	-800	1	Over
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1300	-1600	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+470	-750	0	Under
PIT E. Soderblom	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+475	-800	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+320	-390	0	Under
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+410	-550	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+370	-650	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+180	-225	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+185	-230	1	Over
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+360	-650	1	Over

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+360	–	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-110	+105	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+245	-340	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+175	-210	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+195	-210	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+240	-330	1	Over
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+390	-600	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+105	-110	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+140	-150	1	Over
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+160	-170	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+100	-110	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+140	-180	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+162	-165	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+200	-265	0	Under

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+155	-220	0	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+280	–	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-165	+135	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-175	+145	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	-105	-125	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+145	-200	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+205	-285	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-145	+125	1	Over
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-145	+135	1	Over
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-220	+170	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-170	+145	1	Over
PIT T. Novak	0.5	-132	+120	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+120	-140	1	Over

0 of 14 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+185	-250	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+188	-260	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+340	-550	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+195	-275	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+250	-285	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+260	-275	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+180	-185	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+210	-250	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+250	-295	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+300	-600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	25.5	-110	-105	34	Over
PIT A. Silovs	22.5	-120	-115	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PIT D. Carlile	1.5	+100	-140	1	Under
NSH R. Josi	1.5	-130	-110	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTommy Novak PIT Faces NSH, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, PIT 3.3	NSH 2, PIT 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NSH 25.4, PIT 29.3	NSH 26, PIT 37
Win chance	PIT 58%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT R. Rakell	2.8	4	0.82	1	30%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	2.6	1	0.93	0	34%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	0	1.07	1	33%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.4	2	0.83	0	19%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	3	0.84	1	34%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.78	1	16%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	0	0.68	0	27%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.9	2	0.66	0	23%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	2	0.86	1	28%	0
NSH M. Bourque	1.9	2	0.51	0	20%	0
PIT N. Robertson	1.7	2	0.41	0	20%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.7	3	0.48	1	21%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.6	2	0.36	0	15%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.5	1	0.32	0	13%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	4	0.37	1	15%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.4	1	0.42	1	9%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.4	1	0.40	0	15%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.3	2	0.31	0	17%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.3	3	0.28	1	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	3	0.37	0	5%	0
PIT A. Kuzmenko	1.2	0	0.48	0	20%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.2	1	0.22	0	8%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	3	0.37	1	11%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.1	1	0.32	0	9%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.0	0	0.29	1	13%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.38	0	14%	0
PIT H. Lapierre	1.0	4	0.41	1	12%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.0	0	0.43	0	15%	0
PIT S. Stastney	1.0	2	0.23	0	5%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.8	2	0.21	0	5%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.8	2	0.30	0	4%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.6	2	0.20	1	4%	1

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.