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Game Recap
NSH2
STL3
STL beat NSH 3-2, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 3.59. NSH outshot STL 32 to 20. P. Buchnevich led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Svechkov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Hofer stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 8:45STLB. SchennPP0.18 xG
- 1st 11:41NSHT. Jost0.08 xG
- 1st 18:14STLP. Buchnevich0.17 xG
- 3rd 4:40STLP. Buchnevich0.18 xG
- 3rd 12:03NSHF. SvechkovSH0.10 xG
Team Stats
NSHSTL
32Shots on goal20
3.59Expected goals3.10
70Shot attempts36
235v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play1/2
17Hits25
3Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways16
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 3.59 xGSTL 3.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 2:01 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:39 | 1:46 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 1:44 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:05 | 2:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:59 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:03 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:14 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:58 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:12 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:02 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:38 | 2:02 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 1:43 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:18 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 1:58 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 57:52 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:48 | 1:55 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:14 |
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:57 | 1:19 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:14 | 1:15 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 2:08 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:13 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:52 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 2:12 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:40 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 1:09 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:15 | 2:18 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 59:47 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NSH
Line 1L. Evangelista14:45M. Bunting13:51E. Haula11:56
Line 2S. Stamkos12:26F. Forsberg15:15R. O'Reilly13:34
Line 3M. McCarron12:55R. Schaefer10:37C. Smith9:52
Line 4F. Svechkov12:28M. Wood12:07T. Jost10:35
Pair 2N. Blankenburg15:00N. Hague15:23
STL
Line 1B. Schenn15:38J. Kyrou15:00O. Stenberg11:24
Line 2P. Buchnevich14:41R. Thomas14:09J. Neighbours13:07
Line 3O. Sundqvist11:35A. Toropchenko11:32P. Suter9:38
Line 4J. Snuggerud11:57D. Dvorsky9:59J. Berggren11:32
Pair 1C. Parayko17:31P. Broberg17:09
Pair 3C. Fowler18:44L. Mailloux13:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.7, STL 3.0 | NSH 2, STL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 26.8, STL 26.3 | NSH 32, STL 20 |
| Win chance | STL 55% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.1 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.5 | 5 | 0.77 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.3 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.2 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 26% | 2 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 1 | 1.05 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.7 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.5 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.1 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.