Game Recap: NSH 2, TBL 3, March 29, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalSun, Mar 29, 2026Every game that night

TBL3

TBL beat NSH 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.20 expected goals to 2.78. J. Guentzel led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). Z. L'Heureux had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Johansson stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	1	1	2
TBL	0	1	2	3

2nd 8:31NSHJ. Kemell0.41 xG
2nd 13:32TBLJ. Guentzel0.26 xG
3rd 4:33TBLB. Hagel0.24 xG
3rd 4:53NSHF. Forsberg0.03 xG
3rd 6:52TBLC. Perry0.63 xG

Team Stats

NSHTBL

31Shots on goal28

2.78Expected goals4.20

58Shot attempts63

255v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play0/4

19Hits18

12Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes18

15Giveaways13

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.78 xGTBL 4.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH30 on goal, 2 scored

TBL28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	4	1	1	+2	0	19:37	5:36
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:55	0:00
J. Kemell	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	8:16	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	24:29	5:38
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	17:17	6:02
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:16	5:22
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:39	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	14:57	2:40
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	14:24	1:28
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	14:05	2:26
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	13:42	2:15
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:26	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:57	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	14:22	0:26
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-3	0	27:05	5:42
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	22:46	2:19
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	17:05	0:03
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:48	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	28	25	3	.893	58:54	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	2	3	3	0	0	+3	2	18:46	5:36
B. Hagel	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	22:20	4:29
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	12:59	3:34
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:59	4:22
B. Point	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	18:06	5:31
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:08	3:13
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	16:08	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	15:29	0:02
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	11:54	1:25
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:36	1:35
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:19	2:09
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	5:54	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	23:51	5:37
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	0	17:34	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:52	2:23
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:10	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:06	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	12	15:49	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos10:08R. O'Reilly11:56Z. L'Heureux10:19

Line 2F. Forsberg12:55F. Svechkov14:46J. Marchessault10:48

Line 3L. Evangelista12:17E. Haula10:05T. Jost11:19

Line 4M. Wood10:21J. Kemell8:16R. Schaefer5:56

Pair 1R. Josi16:26B. Skjei16:20

Pair 2J. Barron13:52A. Wilsby14:55

Pair 3N. Hague13:13N. Perbix10:38

TBL

Line 1B. Hagel13:48A. Cirelli12:13G. Goncalves13:06

Line 2Z. Girgensons12:00P. Holmberg10:29Y. Gourde12:39

Line 3J. Guentzel12:01B. Point11:42C. Perry9:25

Line 4N. Paul9:07S. Sabourin5:54O. Bjorkstrand6:10

Pair 1D. Raddysh17:14J. Moser16:30

Pair 2E. Lilleberg14:04C. D'Astous13:29

Pair 3R. McDonagh12:50E. Cernak11:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSteven Stamkos NSH Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.6, TBL 3.8	NSH 2, TBL 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	NSH 25.3, TBL 30.6	NSH 31, TBL 28
Win chance	TBL 68%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL B. Hagel	3.0	5	1.09	1	34%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	2.8	4	0.79	2	32%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.8	1	0.86	1	18%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	3	1.00	3	36%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.6	4	0.68	0	17%	0
TBL B. Point	2.3	4	1.00	0	37%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	2	0.67	0	30%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	2	0.60	0	25%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	2	0.50	0	15%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	3	0.70	0	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.69	0	24%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.6	1	0.27	0	12%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	1	0.38	0	16%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.6	1	0.60	0	19%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	1	0.47	0	15%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	0	0.34	0	9%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	0	0.38	0	18%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.4	0	0.41	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.3	2	0.38	1	18%	1
TBL J. Moser	1.3	2	0.36	0	8%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.3	2	0.35	0	14%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.3	4	0.23	0	11%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.3	1	0.34	0	16%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.2	2	0.15	1	9%	1
NSH N. Hague	1.1	3	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	0	0.44	1	8%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	1	0.19	1	3%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	0	0.38	0	6%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	1	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	0.9	2	0.23	1	9%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	0	0.19	0	12%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	1	0.24	1	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	1	0.15	1	5%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.6	0	0.20	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.