Game Recap: NSH 4, TOR 7, October 14, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalTue, Oct 14, 2025Every game that night

TOR7

TOR beat NSH 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.81 expected goals to 2.36. W. Nylander led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Primeau stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	2	2	4
TOR	2	2	3	7

1st 8:42TORJ. McCabe0.02 xG
1st 13:34TORO. Ekman-Larsson0.02 xG
2nd 3:21NSHM. McCarron0.03 xG
2nd 4:05NSHE. Haula0.11 xG
2nd 8:49TORJ. Tavares0.26 xG
2nd 16:24TORB. McMann0.02 xG
3rd 10:42TORA. Matthews0.17 xG
3rd 16:06NSHR. Josi0.03 xG
3rd 16:50TORA. MatthewsEN0.91 xG
3rd 18:49NSHN. Perbix0.07 xG
3rd 19:36TORW. NylanderEN0.67 xG

Team Stats

NSHTOR

30Shots on goal28

2.36Expected goals4.81

71Shot attempts57

255v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/2

18Hits21

11Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways17

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.36 xGTOR 4.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH30 on goal, 4 scored

TOR28 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	0	2	9:30	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-3	0	17:30	2:14
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	17:29	1:43
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	12:48	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	18:57	2:17
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-3	0	17:29	2:15
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	17:23	2:18
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:30	1:45
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:30	1:35
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	13:05	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:51	1:45
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
N. Perbix	D	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	21:45	0:07
A. Wilsby	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	2	18:15	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	4	1	3	-3	0	23:13	2:15
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	22:50	1:46
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	15:44	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	14:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	26	21	5	.808	59:10	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Knies	LW	0	3	3	3	2	2	+2	2	18:55	2:40
W. Nylander	RW	1	2	3	4	0	1	+1	0	18:51	2:42
J. Tavares	C	1	2	3	2	3	0	+2	0	16:37	2:41
A. Matthews	C	2	0	2	5	1	3	+3	0	21:31	2:49
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	15:04	1:20
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	0	14:05	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	12:26	1:19
D. Joshua	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	11:28	0:00
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	12:48	1:18
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:23	0:55
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	11:46	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	11:34	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	1	2	3	1	0	4	+2	0	20:17	1:28
J. McCabe	D	1	1	2	1	3	3	+2	0	21:30	0:16
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	18:02	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:01	2:32
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	19:42	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	17:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Primeau	30	26	4	.867	60:00	Win
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly14:44F. Forsberg13:24S. Stamkos14:15

Line 2J. Marchessault13:30M. Bunting13:45E. Haula12:37

Line 3L. Evangelista11:06F. Svechkov11:11T. Jost11:24

Line 4C. Smith10:48M. McCarron11:03O. Wiesblatt9:30

Pair 1B. Skjei16:49N. Perbix18:35

Pair 2R. Josi17:31A. Wilsby17:41

Pair 3J. Barron14:08S. Stastney13:49

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews15:09M. Knies14:08E. Cowan14:05

Line 2J. Tavares12:51W. Nylander14:32M. Maccelli11:28

Line 3B. McMann12:33N. Robertson10:46M. Domi11:14

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:58N. Roy10:28D. Joshua10:03

Pair 1C. Tanev15:06J. McCabe17:02

Pair 2O. Ekman-Larsson17:44S. Benoit16:37

Pair 3M. Rielly16:40B. Carlo15:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownSteven Stamkos NSH Plays near home (born in Markham)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.8, TOR 3.2	NSH 4, TOR 7
Total goals	6.0	11
Shots on goal	NSH 27.8, TOR 27.2	NSH 30, TOR 28
Win chance	TOR 57%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	5	1.20	2	44%	2
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	4	0.89	0	33%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.0	4	1.08	3	37%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.8	2	0.88	3	32%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.7	4	0.76	1	18%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	4	0.69	1	28%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.3	3	0.80	3	29%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	2	0.76	0	31%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.1	4	0.44	1	20%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.1	2	0.45	0	16%	0
NSH M. Bunting	2.0	0	0.51	0	20%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	0	0.66	0	24%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	3	0.43	1	12%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.37	1	17%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	1	0.64	0	13%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	1	0.34	1	17%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	0	0.44	0	13%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	0	0.50	0	13%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.4	2	0.24	0	9%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.24	1	12%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	2	0.29	0	13%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	0	0.42	0	16%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	0	0.19	2	4%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.33	3	8%	1
NSH C. Smith	1.2	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	1	0.22	0	9%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	1	0.35	2	7%	1
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.16	0	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	1.0	1	0.24	2	10%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	2	0.32	0	14%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	1	0.32	1	15%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.25	2	5%	1
TOR S. Benoit	0.8	0	0.14	1	4%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	1	0.24	0	5%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.6	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.