Game Recap: NSH 4, UTA 3 (SO), April 10, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH4

Final/SOThu, Apr 10, 2025Every game that night

UTA3

NSH beat UTA 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.86 expected goals to 4.51. UTA outshot NSH 42 to 31. R. O'Reilly led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Guenther had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Saros stopped 39 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NSH	0	1	2	1	4
UTA	0	2	1	0	3

2nd 4:49UTAN. Bjugstad0.05 xG
2nd 13:54UTAJ. Doan0.03 xG
2nd 17:21NSHN. BlankenburgPP0.04 xG
3rd 1:19NSHF. ForsbergPP0.33 xG
3rd 3:17NSHR. O'Reilly0.28 xG
3rd 5:42UTAD. Guenther0.41 xG

Team Stats

NSHUTA

31Shots on goal42

2.86Expected goals4.51

55Shot attempts79

215v5 shots on goal39

2/3Power play0/2

25Hits18

18Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes8

23Giveaways23

1Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.86 xGUTA 4.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH28 on goal, 3 scored

UTA42 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	1	2	3	0	2	+1	0	21:37	2:53
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	4	1	2	-1	0	20:10	3:38
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	2	19:01	4:11
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	18:17	3:27
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:51	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:34	0:44
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	15:47	0:01
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:05	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	13:11	1:18
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:15	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:14	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	9:57	0:33
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-2	0	26:10	1:32
N. Blankenburg	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	2	23:19	2:25
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	0	24:01	0:14
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	19:15	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	15:30	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	14:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	42	39	3	.929	64:59	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Guenther	RW	1	0	1	6	1	0	+1	0	20:40	3:10
C. Keller	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:20	3:09
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	2	19:25	0:51
A. Kerfoot	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	14:04	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	1	1	4	4	1	+1	0	13:41	0:30
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:13	0:48
N. Bjugstad	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	10:23	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:15	3:12
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:14	1:50
K. Yamamoto	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:26	0:27
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	14:53	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	11:06	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	16:08	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	26:09	3:22
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	4	1	4	+1	2	26:09	0:38
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	20:26	0:03
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	18:03	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Vejmelka	31	28	3	.903	65:00	OT loss
M. Villalta	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Kerfoot NSH First game back in Salt Lake City, his team until May 20261 A, 0 SOG
BirthdayDylan Guenther UTA Turns 22 that day1 G, 6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, UTA 3.3	NSH 4, UTA 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NSH 27.4, UTA 28.5	NSH 31, UTA 42
Win chance	UTA 56%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	4	0.90	1	34%	1
UTA D. Guenther	3.0	6	0.87	1	30%	1
UTA C. Keller	2.6	1	1.04	1	30%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	1	0.67	1	28%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	0	0.79	1	33%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	1	0.49	0	18%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	3	0.78	1	26%	0
NSH M. Bunting	2.1	2	0.57	1	23%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.0	1	0.75	0	22%	0
UTA B. Hayton	2.0	3	0.54	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	2	0.45	1	13%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	3	0.62	2	23%	1
UTA M. Sergachev	1.6	2	0.66	0	14%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	3	0.43	1	14%	1
UTA S. Durzi	1.5	4	0.49	0	12%	0
NSH J. Vrana	1.5	0	0.39	0	20%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.5	3	0.32	1	14%	1
UTA M. Kesselring	1.5	3	0.32	0	8%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.5	3	0.21	0	4%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.4	0	0.31	0	16%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	3	0.30	1	8%	1
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.4	1	0.26	0	11%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.3	3	0.25	0	10%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	2	0.34	0	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	1	0.34	0	15%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.3	0	0.41	1	14%	0
UTA K. Yamamoto	1.1	3	0.35	0	14%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	4	0.37	1	14%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.1	1	0.26	1	7%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
UTA O. Maatta	0.8	2	0.23	0	5%	0
NSH J. Oesterle	0.8	3	0.16	0	4%	0
UTA I. Cole	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.5	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 12 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.