Game Recap: NSH 5, VAN 3, November 17, 2024

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Game Recap

NSH5

FinalSun, Nov 17, 2024Every game that night

VAN3

NSH beat VAN 5-3, with the chances close: 2.28 expected goals to 2.11. S. Stamkos led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Saros stopped 24 of 27.

NSHVAN

22Shots on goal27

2.28Expected goals2.11

54Shot attempts59

185v5 shots on goal26

2/2Power play1/2

25Hits26

19Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes4

8Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

NSH 2.28 xGVAN 2.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

NSH21 on goal, 4 scored

VAN27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	0	2	2	3	2	1	+2	0	17:03	1:21
S. Stamkos	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	16:29	1:21
G. Nyquist	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:06	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	17:55	1:21
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:27	1:21
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	0	14:02	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:56	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	-1	0	12:14	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	15:01	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:40	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	11:33	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	22:41	1:21
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:47	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	20:42	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	0	5	5	0	0	20:12	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	18:25	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	17:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Heinen	LW	0	2	2	3	0	2	+1	0	13:01	0:03
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	21:35	2:29
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	2	19:55	2:27
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	17:29	0:51
A. Räty	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	11:31	0:05
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:18	1:19
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	16:18	0:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:27	2:30
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	13:30	0:00
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:19	0:51
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:41	1:56
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10:48	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	27:25	2:52
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	19:16	0:02
E. Brannstrom	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:15	0:30
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	25:13	0:55
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	17:30	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	13:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	21	17	4	.810	58:51	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Old teamNils Hoglander NSH First game back in Vancouver, his team until Apr 20260 SOG
Old teamKevin Lankinen VAN Faces NSH, his team until May 202417 saves on 21

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	3	0.95	2	36%	0
NSH R. Josi	3.0	2	0.86	2	23%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	4	0.87	2	32%	2
VAN C. Garland	2.6	5	0.70	1	24%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	3	0.71	1	29%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.3	2	0.86	1	30%	1
VAN Q. Hughes	2.3	2	0.93	1	13%	0
VAN J. Miller	2.2	0	0.95	0	28%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	1	0.46	1	15%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	1.9	3	0.53	0	23%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	0	0.43	0	15%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	1	0.43	1	16%	1
VAN P. Suter	1.7	2	0.39	0	18%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	0	0.66	1	23%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	1	0.71	1	20%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	0	0.46	0	8%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.4	0	0.52	0	18%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.4	3	0.42	2	18%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.3	0	0.33	0	17%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	1	0.36	0	10%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.1	0	0.44	0	19%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	1	0.26	1	13%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.1	1	0.31	0	12%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	1	0.26	1	4%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.1	0	0.16	0	6%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	1	0.23	1	9%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.1	0	0.30	0	6%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.0	2	0.15	0	5%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.0	2	0.24	0	4%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.0	2	0.20	1	10%	1
NSH J. Parssinen	1.0	0	0.37	0	14%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	0.9	3	0.25	1	4%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	0.9	1	0.24	1	8%	1
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	2	0.21	0	7%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.