Game Recap: NSH 3, VAN 0, January 3, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NSH3

FinalFri, Jan 3, 2025Every game that night

VAN0

NSH beat VAN 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 2.37. VAN outshot NSH 27 to 19. G. Nyquist led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Sherwood had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Saros stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	1	2	3
VAN	0	0	0	0

2nd 16:53NSHS. Stamkos0.13 xG
3rd 18:16NSHG. NyquistEN0.64 xG
3rd 19:29NSHC. SissonsEN0.76 xG

Team Stats

NSHVAN

19Shots on goal27

3.40Expected goals2.37

51Shot attempts61

175v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/3

21Hits51

19Blocked shots14

11Penalty minutes9

19Giveaways7

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.40 xGVAN 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH19 on goal, 3 scored

VAN27 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
G. Nyquist	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	15:13	0:45
C. Sissons	C	1	1	2	1	2	2	+2	0	14:25	0:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	19:38	2:09
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	2	18:46	2:08
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:00	2:10
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	14:44	0:47
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:33	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	14:32	2:08
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	13:07	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:55	0:46
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:09	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+2	0	23:53	2:19
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	0	21:21	0:47
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	21:38	0:36
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	18:07	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:54	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	8	2	0	0	15:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	4	2	0	-2	0	20:19	3:17
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	2	-2	0	19:45	2:54
C. Garland	RW	1	0	0	-2	0	17:31	2:39
P. Suter	C	1	2	0	-2	0	17:06	1:40
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	5	0	-1	0	16:23	2:11
K. Sherwood	LW	5	6	0	-2	0	15:27	2:03
D. Heinen	LW	2	0	0	-1	2	14:18	2:27
T. Blueger	C	2	4	0	-1	0	14:01	0:02
P. Di Giuseppe	LW	2	9	0	0	0	13:06	0:00
M. Sasson	C	2	1	0	0	0	12:57	0:06
N. Hoglander	LW	0	1	0	0	2	12:12	0:05
D. Joshua	C	0	5	1	0	5	10:23	1:36
T. Myers	D	2	1	3	-1	0	22:44	2:58
V. Desharnais	D	1	4	0	-1	0	22:11	0:23
D. Forbort	D	2	1	1	0	0	20:38	0:44
C. Soucy	D	1	4	3	-1	0	17:33	1:29
N. Juulsen	D	1	5	1	0	0	16:23	0:00
G. Brisebois	D	0	1	3	-1	0	14:58	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	17	16	1	.941	58:05	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNils Hoglander NSH First game back in Vancouver, his team until Apr 20260 SOG
Old teamKevin Lankinen VAN Faces NSH, his team until May 202416 saves on 17

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 3.1, VAN 3.0	NSH 3, VAN 0
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	NSH 28.8, VAN 26.5	NSH 19, VAN 27
Win chance	NSH 51%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	1	0.94	1	34%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.9	0	0.84	1	34%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.7	2	0.83	1	23%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	1	0.74	0	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	1	0.90	1	34%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	1	0.60	0	26%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	0	0.74	0	29%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	1	0.46	0	14%	0
VAN J. Miller	1.9	4	0.91	0	26%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	2	0.43	0	16%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	5	0.46	0	20%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.7	1	0.45	0	20%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	0	0.66	0	23%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.4	2	0.66	2	19%	1
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	2	0.39	0	11%	0
NSH V. Hinostroza	1.2	1	0.29	0	11%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	2	0.27	1	10%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.2	0	0.34	0	14%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	2	0.30	0	5%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.2	2	0.42	0	17%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	2	0.37	0	12%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	0	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.1	1	0.25	0	8%	0
VAN P. Giuseppe	1.1	2	0.25	0	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.1	0	0.28	0	14%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	3	0.28	0	14%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.0	1	0.27	2	11%	1
VAN D. Joshua	0.8	0	0.35	0	16%	0
VAN G. Brisebois	0.8	0	0.18	0	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.8	2	0.18	0	8%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	2	0.19	0	6%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.14	0	2%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.5	0	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.