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Game Recap
NSH3
VGK5
VGK beat NSH 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.16 expected goals to 1.80. VGK outshot NSH 29 to 17. N. Roy led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Hill stopped 14 of 17.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| VGK | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 8:11NSHJ. Oesterle0.09 xG
- 2nd 4:02VGKB. Howden0.08 xG
- 2nd 5:36VGKN. Roy0.16 xG
- 2nd 11:09VGKA. HoltzPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 1:02NSHJ. Marchessault0.33 xG
- 3rd 4:58NSHM. Del Gaizo0.07 xG
- 3rd 18:05VGKN. Hanifin0.04 xG
- 3rd 19:58VGKI. BarbashevEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
NSHVGK
17Shots on goal29
1.80Expected goals4.16
47Shot attempts68
165v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play1/3
20Hits11
21Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes2
22Giveaways22
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 1.80 xGVGK 4.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:40 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:10 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:20 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:10 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:29 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:44 | 1:30 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:34 | 0:54 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:10 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:10 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:08 | 0:56 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:12 | 0:21 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:55 | 0:10 |
| J. Oesterle | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:10 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:51 | 0:56 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:54 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 58:41 | Loss |
| J. Saros | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VGK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:17 |
| B. Howden | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:52 | 2:16 |
| I. Barbashev | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:19 |
| W. Karlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 3:10 |
| K. Kolesar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Holtz | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:52 |
| T. Pearson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:10 |
| P. Dorofeyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 3:26 |
| T. Hertl | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 3:27 |
| M. Stone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 3:24 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:54 |
| S. Theodore | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:42 | 3:15 |
| N. Hanifin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:39 | 2:44 |
| B. McNabb | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:05 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:16 |
| B. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| K. Korczak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 2.6, VGK 3.4 | NSH 3, VGK 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 26.3, VGK 29.5 | NSH 17, VGK 29 |
| Win chance | VGK 63% | VGK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.3 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| VGK P. Dorofeyev | 2.9 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.4 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VGK W. Karlsson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.1 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK T. Hertl | 2.1 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VGK S. Theodore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| VGK M. Stone | 1.9 | 0 | 0.93 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VGK N. Hanifin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| VGK R. Smith | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Saad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VGK I. Barbashev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| VGK N. Roy | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| NSH J. Vrana | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| VGK B. Howden | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.4 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| VGK T. Pearson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VGK A. Holtz | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| VGK B. Hutton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VGK B. McNabb | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| VGK Z. Whitecloud | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VGK K. Korczak | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| VGK K. Kolesar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH J. Oesterle | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.5 | 0 | 0.09 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.