Game Recap: NSH 4, VGK 2, December 31, 2025

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Game Recap

NSH4

FinalWed, Dec 31, 2025Every game that night

VGK2

NSH beat VGK 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.52 expected goals to 3.12. VGK outshot NSH 31 to 19. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Saad had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Annunen stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	3	1	0	4
VGK	2	0	0	2

1st 5:35VGKM. StonePP0.29 xG
1st 9:06VGKB. Hutton0.10 xG
1st 11:20NSHN. Perbix0.05 xG
1st 15:37NSHS. StamkosPP0.07 xG
1st 16:21NSHR. Schaefer0.02 xG
2nd 11:52NSHM. BuntingPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

NSHVGK

19Shots on goal31

2.52Expected goals3.12

47Shot attempts69

135v5 shots on goal20

2/4Power play1/3

26Hits26

18Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes18

12Giveaways17

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 2.52 xGVGK 3.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH18 on goal, 4 scored

VGK31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Evangelista	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:19	4:27
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:56	4:41
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:32	5:05
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	18:16	2:23
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:21	2:23
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	1	6	0	+1	2	12:44	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	10:33	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	23:13	4:20
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	8	1	+1	0	15:51	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:22	1:46
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:03	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:24	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	24:08	2:10
N. Perbix	D	1	0	1	2	1	5	0	0	19:45	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:17	1:56
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	20:31	4:55
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:34	0:09
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	18:36	3:43
M. Stone	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	21:33	3:47
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	2	4	0	+1	0	19:03	3:47
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	23:39	3:42
I. Barbashev	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	16:05	0:27
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	14:46	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:34	0:12
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	14:16	0:08
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:36	0:20
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:21	0:15
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	9:45	0:13
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	14	7:30	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	0	29:59	3:52
B. Hutton	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	16:19	0:12
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:13	0:03
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:32	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	-1	0	17:02	0:00
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	19	15	4	.789	54:52	Loss
C. Hart	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos12:03R. O'Reilly13:56F. Forsberg12:40

Line 2E. Haula11:08L. Evangelista12:21M. Bunting11:31

Line 3C. Smith12:08R. Schaefer10:33M. McCarron10:11

Line 4T. Jost9:03F. Svechkov8:24M. Wood7:36

Pair 1B. Skjei15:52A. Wilsby16:07

Pair 2N. Hague15:09N. Blankenburg14:41

Pair 3R. Josi13:04N. Perbix13:13

VGK

Line 1M. Stone12:46M. Marner14:32I. Barbashev12:49

Line 2B. Howden11:01B. Bowman11:18R. Smith10:11

Line 3P. Dorofeyev11:14T. Hertl10:09A. Holtz8:57

Line 4C. Sissons8:49K. Kolesar7:30B. Saad12:26

Pair 1B. Hutton14:44N. Hanifin19:16

Pair 2B. McNabb8:26K. Korczak16:24

Pair 3J. Lauzon13:58Z. Whitecloud15:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNicolas Hague NSH Faces VGK, his team until May 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.6, VGK 3.2	NSH 4, VGK 2
Total goals	5.8	6
Shots on goal	NSH 25.4, VGK 29.2	NSH 19, VGK 31
Win chance	VGK 61%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK P. Dorofeyev	3.1	3	0.71	2	32%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	2	0.86	1	33%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.3	2	0.68	0	16%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.59	2	18%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.2	2	1.06	1	29%	1
VGK T. Hertl	2.2	2	0.68	1	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	1	0.73	1	31%	1
VGK N. Hanifin	2.1	5	0.59	1	13%	0
VGK M. Marner	1.9	3	1.20	0	28%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	1	0.74	0	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	2	0.45	1	18%	1
VGK B. Saad	1.6	5	0.38	0	18%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.6	0	0.34	0	15%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	1	0.69	0	23%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.5	1	0.39	1	16%	0
VGK B. Hutton	1.5	3	0.31	1	9%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	0	0.35	1	9%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.5	0	0.49	0	22%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.5	1	0.50	0	16%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.4	0	0.33	0	14%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.4	0	0.46	0	17%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.21	1	10%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	0	0.28	1	6%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	1	0.26	0	10%	0
VGK C. Sissons	1.1	2	0.28	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	0	0.26	0	6%	0
VGK K. Korczak	1.0	2	0.33	0	5%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	1	0.22	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	1	0.28	0	10%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.25	1	5%	1
NSH A. Wilsby	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	0.8	0	0.21	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.7	2	0.21	1	12%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.