Game Recap: NSH 3, VGK 2 (SO), November 13, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH3

Final/SOFri, Nov 13, 2026Every game that night

VGK2

NSH beat VGK 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 3.34 expected goals to 3.95. VGK outshot NSH 42 to 32. R. O'Reilly led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Howden had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Saros stopped 40 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NSH	1	0	1	1	3
VGK	1	1	0	0	2

1st 7:56NSHR. O'Reilly0.18 xG
1st 11:19VGKV. Olofsson0.53 xG
2nd 10:48VGKR. Andersson0.13 xG
3rd 9:44NSHR. O'Reilly0.08 xG

Team Stats

NSHVGK

32Shots on goal42

3.34Expected goals3.95

69Shot attempts61

235v5 shots on goal35

0/2Power play0/1

18Hits20

9Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways14

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.34 xGVGK 3.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH32 on goal, 2 scored

VGK41 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	2	21:13	2:21
S. Stamkos	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	2	20:33	3:03
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:44	2:21
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:33	3:01
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	17:35	0:00
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:56	1:27
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	14:52	0:45
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	14:42	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	14:21	1:27
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:37	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:33	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:40	0:34
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	31:40	2:31
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	28:31	0:02
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:59	1:17
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:38	0:11
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	12:48	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	42	40	2	.952	65:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:10	1:09
T. Hertl	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	15:53	1:07
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	15:23	1:11
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	2	15:17	0:00
J. Eichel	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	21:35	1:10
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:59	1:11
W. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	19:07	0:23
T. Connelly	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:49	0:37
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	15:46	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:23	0:00
B. Bowman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	9:06	0:38
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	21:06	0:35
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	20:54	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	23:39	0:39
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	19:46	0:20
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	19:45	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	32	30	2	.938	65:00	OT loss
C. Hart	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:36R. O'Reilly15:39M. Bourque13:39

Line 2F. Forsberg16:03N. Hoglander14:07S. Wright12:15

Line 3J. Drury15:13R. Colton14:15A. Edstrom12:06

Line 4A. Kerfoot10:53R. Schaefer9:33V. Pinchuk7:06

Pair 1R. Josi23:43A. Wilsby25:32

Pair 2B. Skjei15:05N. Perbix16:22

Pair 3J. Struble12:48D. Hunt11:05

VGK

Line 1M. Marner14:58B. Howden15:19W. Karlsson15:23

Line 2M. Stone14:51J. Eichel15:42T. Connelly14:48

Line 3I. Barbashev14:54T. Hertl12:50V. Olofsson11:34

Line 4N. Dowd8:52M. Gatcomb8:51B. Bowman8:28

Pair 1P. Wotherspoon18:08D. Coghlan19:26

Pair 2B. McNabb17:18S. Theodore18:03

Pair 3R. Andersson16:05J. Lauzon15:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 16 overs hit (63%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-113	+100	1	Under
VGK J. Eichel	2.5	-128	+110	6	Over
VGK M. Marner	2.5	+120	-150	1	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+140	-155	3	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+135	-155	2	Under
VGK T. Hertl	2.5	+126	-160	3	Over
VGK V. Olofsson	2.5	+135	-170	4	Over
VGK B. Howden	1.5	+110	-140	5	Over
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	+130	-155	2	Over
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-160	+128	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	1.5	-180	+139	1	Under
NSH R. Colton	1.5	+100	-120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-108	-105	4	Over
VGK S. Theodore	1.5	-130	+110	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	1.5	-135	+111	4	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	1.5	-130	+115	5	Over

3 of 36 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+625	-1200	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
VGK B. Bowman	0.5	+625	-900	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
VGK B. McNabb	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
VGK D. Coghlan	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
NSH D. Hunt	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
VGK J. Lauzon	0.5	+1900	-2800	0	Under
NSH J. Struble	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+333	-400	0	Under
VGK M. Gatcomb	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+250	-285	0	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+195	-260	0	Under
VGK N. Dowd	0.5	+950	-1000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
VGK R. Andersson	0.5	+850	-2500	1	Over
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+550	-650	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+275	-390	2	Over
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+275	-450	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+220	-285	0	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+275	-300	1	Over
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+360	-475	0	Under

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+475	-550	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+145	-157	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+240	-295	1	Over
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	-135	+112	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-120	-108	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+305	-425	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-120	-105	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+165	-197	1	Over
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+185	-220	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+310	-350	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+190	-220	1	Over
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+260	-345	0	Under

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VGK J. Eichel	1.5	+176	-220	0	Under
VGK B. Howden	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-150	+140	0	Under
VGK I. Barbashev	0.5	+125	-150	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+115	-145	1	Over
VGK M. Marner	0.5	-215	+170	1	Over
VGK M. Stone	0.5	-185	+160	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+171	-230	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-155	+130	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-140	+125	2	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-145	+120	1	Over
VGK S. Theodore	0.5	+140	-165	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	-125	-105	1	Over
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+102	-115	1	Over
VGK W. Karlsson	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under

0 of 12 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+230	-280	Under
VGK J. Eichel	0.5	+150	-180	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+320	-450	Under
VGK M. Marner	0.5	+195	-215	Under
VGK M. Stone	0.5	+230	-240	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+230	-280	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+280	-400	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+240	-325	Under
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+525	-1000	Under
VGK T. Connelly	0.5	+320	-700	Under
VGK T. Hertl	0.5	+250	-300	Under
VGK V. Olofsson	0.5	+275	-280	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	26.5	+100	-120	40	Over
VGK A. Hill	22.5	-114	+100	30	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VGK B. McNabb	1.5	-155	+110	4	Over
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	+120	-175	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	1.5	+110	-155	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	1.5	-125	-110	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneBrayden McNabb VGK 1 point from 200Not yet: 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.7, VGK 3.4	NSH 3, VGK 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	NSH 24.5, VGK 29.8	NSH 32, VGK 42
Win chance	VGK 61%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	2.9	6	1.07	0	29%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	2.7	1	0.86	0	33%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.3	3	0.74	1	15%	0
VGK M. Marner	2.3	1	1.05	1	27%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.3	3	0.71	1	28%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	2	0.72	1	32%	0
VGK T. Connelly	2.1	4	0.59	0	23%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	2.1	4	0.51	1	22%	1
VGK M. Stone	2.1	1	0.94	0	31%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	1.9	5	0.57	0	22%	0
NSH R. Colton	1.8	2	0.40	0	19%	0
NSH M. Bourque	1.8	0	0.47	1	20%	0
VGK S. Theodore	1.8	0	0.59	0	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.7	4	0.72	2	24%	2
VGK R. Andersson	1.6	3	0.39	1	11%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.5	5	0.47	0	23%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.5	2	0.57	1	20%	0
VGK D. Coghlan	1.4	1	0.18	0	6%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.3	0	0.30	0	17%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.3	4	0.36	0	14%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.3	1	0.34	0	6%	0
NSH S. Wright	1.3	2	0.40	0	18%	0
VGK M. Gatcomb	1.2	2	0.17	0	10%	0
VGK B. Bowman	1.2	2	0.39	0	16%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	1	0.30	1	6%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.1	2	0.33	0	7%	0
VGK J. Lauzon	1.1	1	0.16	0	5%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.0	3	0.29	0	13%	0
NSH V. Pinchuk	1.0	1	0.23	0	11%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.9	2	0.33	0	11%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	1	0.21	0	5%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
VGK N. Dowd	0.7	0	0.20	0	9%	0
VGK P. Wotherspoon	0.7	1	0.22	1	3%	0
NSH D. Hunt	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.5	2	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.