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Game Recap
NSH2
WSH3
WSH beat NSH 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 2.82. A. Ovechkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. McMichael had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Thompson stopped 33 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 3:12NSHJ. Parssinen0.10 xG
- 1st 4:26WSHC. McMichael0.35 xG
- 2nd 15:03WSHA. Protas0.28 xG
- 2nd 15:34NSHS. Stamkos0.08 xG
- 3rd 10:25WSHA. Ovechkin0.11 xG
Team Stats
NSHWSH
35Shots on goal36
2.82Expected goals4.12
76Shot attempts72
265v5 shots on goal30
0/2Power play0/6
34Hits34
20Blocked shots19
10Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways18
7Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NSH 2.82 xGWSH 4.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 1:09 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:09 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:47 | 1:09 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:03 | 1:09 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:14 | 1:09 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 58:30 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:12 | 8:49 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:03 | 5:48 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:02 | 4:53 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 3:32 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:34 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:04 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 5:03 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:02 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:33 | 3:43 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 3:07 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:41 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:07 | 0:12 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:08 | 6:45 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:04 | 2:32 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH 3.2, WSH 2.9 | NSH 2, WSH 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NSH 30.3, WSH 27.4 | NSH 35, WSH 36 |
| Win chance | NSH 53% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.7 | 3 | 1.05 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.2 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 4 | 0.84 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.0 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.9 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 6 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.1 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 0 | 0.85 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.8 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 1.8 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.5 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.5 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH P. Tomasino | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 1.0 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 0.9 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH J. Parssinen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.8 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.