Game Recap: NSH 2, WSH 4, February 5, 2026

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Game Recap

NSH2

FinalThu, Feb 5, 2026Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat NSH 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.44 expected goals to 3.68. J. Chychrun led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Chychrun had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. L. Thompson stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	0	1	1	2
WSH	2	1	1	4

1st 4:15WSHT. Wilson0.05 xG
1st 12:48WSHP. DuboisPP0.13 xG
2nd 8:42WSHJ. Chychrun0.04 xG
2nd 17:40NSHJ. Marchessault0.13 xG
3rd 1:17NSHM. McCarron0.07 xG
3rd 13:11WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

NSHWSH

29Shots on goal30

3.68Expected goals2.44

63Shot attempts49

225v5 shots on goal23

0/4Power play2/6

18Hits26

8Blocked shots18

12Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways14

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NSH 3.68 xGWSH 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NSH29 on goal, 2 scored

WSH30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	18:34	0:29
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	4	17:07	3:32
M. McCarron	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	15:45	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	14:25	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	21:11	4:21
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:33	4:22
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:13	2:26
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:15	4:25
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:57	0:30
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	9:30	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	6:33	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	6:31	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	16:38	0:04
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	28:18	4:20
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	+1	0	18:46	0:22
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	18:44	0:27
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:09	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:08	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	30	26	4	.867	56:41	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dubois	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	17:35	2:27
D. Strome	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	11:51	4:29
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	19:32	3:10
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	13:15	6:32
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:20	0:11
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:16	0:09
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:47	0:19
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	14:30	3:09
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	13:49	2:14
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	13:45	4:17
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:21	0:02
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:02	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	2	1	3	7	0	2	+1	0	29:21	4:36
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	7:03	1:34
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	21:08	1:01
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	21:05	0:06
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	18:57	0:09
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	16:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	29	27	2	.931	59:16	Win
C. Stevenson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly12:37L. Evangelista12:38S. Stamkos12:10

Line 2J. Marchessault12:27E. Haula12:42F. Forsberg10:27

Line 3M. McCarron10:31C. Smith9:53M. Bunting11:44

Line 4T. Jost8:28O. Wiesblatt6:21R. Schaefer6:12

Pair 1R. Josi19:09J. Barron16:14

Pair 2B. Skjei14:03A. Wilsby12:28

Pair 3N. Hague11:59N. Perbix10:52

WSH

Line 1N. Dowd14:39B. Duhaime12:39H. Lapierre7:02

Line 2T. Wilson12:22A. Protas14:10P. Dubois11:04

Line 3J. Sourdif10:15R. Leonard9:28A. Beauvillier12:56

Line 4A. Ovechkin5:47D. Strome6:23E. Frank9:44

Pair 1J. Chychrun20:16M. Roy16:12

Pair 2T. Riemsdyk13:26R. Sandin16:26

Pair 3J. Carlson4:01M. Fehérváry14:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Beauvillier WSH Faces NSH, his team until May 20243 SOG
BirthdayEthen Frank WSH Turns 28 that day2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NSH 2.9, WSH 3.9	NSH 2, WSH 4
Total goals	6.8	6
Shots on goal	NSH 28.0, WSH 31.1	NSH 29, WSH 30
Win chance	WSH 65%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	1	0.88	0	33%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	2	1.02	1	39%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	7	0.81	3	25%	2
NSH R. Josi	2.8	3	0.85	0	22%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	2	0.77	0	32%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.3	1	0.84	0	27%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.3	3	0.47	0	20%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.2	1	0.66	0	20%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.2	1	1.06	2	31%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	1	0.58	0	16%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.91	1	32%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	4	0.55	1	24%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	1	0.82	1	15%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.9	1	0.69	0	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	4	0.79	0	25%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	2	0.44	0	17%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	1	0.38	0	11%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.6	2	0.55	0	21%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	2	0.64	2	21%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.6	2	0.36	1	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.5	4	0.23	1	11%	1
NSH C. Smith	1.3	0	0.23	1	10%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.35	0	6%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.37	0	6%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	1	0.21	2	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	2	0.39	0	16%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.38	0	9%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	1	0.18	0	7%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.22	0	6%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	1	0.21	0	11%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	2	0.19	0	10%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.8	0	0.14	0	6%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	0	0.23	0	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	1	0.24	0	3%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	2	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.