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Game Recap
NYI1
ANA4
ANA beat NYI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 2.14. S. Colangelo led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Pelech had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. L. Dostal stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 17:52ANAS. Colangelo0.12 xG
- 2nd 14:56ANAD. Helleson0.01 xG
- 3rd 0:43ANAM. McTavishPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 8:18ANAS. ColangeloEN0.48 xG
- 3rd 15:10NYIT. DeAngelo0.02 xG
Team Stats
NYIANA
32Shots on goal28
2.14Expected goals3.96
68Shot attempts66
235v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play1/2
22Hits24
17Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways21
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.14 xGANA 3.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 2:41 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:46 | 3:55 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:27 | 3:16 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:56 | 3:19 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 3:19 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 2:05 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:41 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:28 | 2:06 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 2:17 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 23:02 | 3:55 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:04 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:22 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hogberg | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 57:05 | Loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:03 | 1:40 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:33 | 1:38 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:08 | 1:45 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:44 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:01 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:17 | 1:59 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:28 | 1:55 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:56 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:03 | 1:55 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:01 | 1:37 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:24 | 0:05 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 2 | 21:55 | 0:03 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:02 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, ANA 2.8 | NYI 1, ANA 4 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.7, ANA 28.4 | NYI 32, ANA 28 |
| Win chance | NYI 51% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.1 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.5 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 5 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.2 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.2 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.0 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.8 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.7 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.7 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.