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Game Recap
NYI1
FinalWed, Mar 4, 2026Every game that night
ANA5

ANA beat NYI 5-1, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.33. NYI outshot ANA 43 to 26. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. DeAngelo had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. V. Husso stopped 42 of 43.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYI1001
ANA3025
  1. 1st 4:58NYIA. LeePP0.04 xG
  2. 1st 12:56ANAC. GauthierPP0.10 xG
  3. 1st 16:05ANAC. Gauthier0.14 xG
  4. 1st 18:40ANAB. Sennecke0.31 xG
  5. 3rd 2:11ANAR. Poehling0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 15:49ANAF. VatranoEN0.57 xG

Team Stats

NYIANA
43Shots on goal26
3.33Expected goals3.82
75Shot attempts60
235v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play1/4
19Hits28
16Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways15
7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.33 xGANA 3.82 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNYI goal, 4:58ANA goal, 12:56ANA goal, 16:05ANA goal, 18:40ANA goal, 2:11ANA goal, 15:49

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI42 on goal, 1 scored
ANA25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. LeeLW101401-2015:023:04
J. DrouinLW011311-1013:252:32
B. HorvatC000531-1022:334:43
M. BarzalC000200-2220:584:58
S. HolmstromRW000400-2019:284:34
O. PalatLW000221-2016:082:42
C. RitchieC000101-2015:414:29
E. HeinemanLW000220-1015:032:45
C. CizikasC0002120214:330:00
J. PageauC000101-1014:180:00
M. GatcombC0000400011:110:00
K. MacLeanC0001110010:330:00
T. DeAngeloD011514-1218:512:52
M. SchaeferD000502-2224:134:51
A. PelechD0002000022:110:05
S. MayfieldD000210-2015:160:00
C. SoucyD000121-1014:480:00
A. BoqvistD000110-1013:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich25214.84055:26Loss
I. Sorokin000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW202411+1218:024:15
C. KreiderLW0220000016:384:20
B. SenneckeRW112351+1015:064:11
L. CarlssonC011300+1017:084:09
R. PoehlingC101201+1015:330:00
R. StromeC011001+2015:012:28
M. McTavishC011210+2414:062:29
F. VatranoRW101200+2013:500:00
A. KillornLW000200+1014:532:34
T. WasheC0000200012:340:00
R. JohnstonLW000070+1011:100:00
J. VielLW000071009:550:00
J. TroubaD011321+2023:192:22
I. MooreD011210+1016:100:00
O. ZellwegerD000000+2020:360:43
P. MintyukovD000102+1220:061:54
R. GudasD000214+1019:560:00
J. LaCombeD000011+1019:224:05
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso43421.97759:04Win
L. Dostal000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat11:57M. Barzal12:26O. Palat10:19
Line 2C. Cizikas11:00M. Gatcomb11:02K. MacLean10:19
Line 3J. Pageau8:17S. Holmstrom8:27A. Lee9:27
Line 4E. Heineman9:42C. Ritchie8:37J. Drouin9:01
Pair 1A. Pelech16:31T. DeAngelo13:17
Pair 2S. Mayfield11:55C. Soucy11:43
Pair 3M. Schaefer14:31A. Boqvist12:54

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider11:04L. Carlsson11:30C. Gauthier12:40
Line 2R. Strome10:30F. Vatrano11:47R. Poehling9:18
Line 3M. McTavish10:52B. Sennecke9:22A. Killorn8:02
Line 4R. Johnston9:22T. Washe7:48J. Viel8:22
Pair 1R. Gudas15:30O. Zellweger14:57
Pair 2J. Trouba13:58J. LaCombe12:01
Pair 3P. Mintyukov13:23I. Moore10:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYI 3.1, ANA 2.9NYI 1, ANA 5
Total goals6.06
Shots on goalNYI 27.5, ANA 29.2NYI 43, ANA 26
Win chanceNYI 53%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.540.75230%2
NYI B. Horvat3.350.90037%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.630.81226%1
NYI M. Schaefer2.450.82025%0
NYI M. Barzal2.320.95025%0
NYI T. DeAngelo2.350.61112%0
NYI A. Lee2.340.57124%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.230.73125%0
ANA J. Trouba2.130.3718%0
ANA A. Killorn2.020.46021%0
ANA C. Kreider2.000.62232%0
NYI E. Heineman2.020.42022%0
ANA M. McTavish2.020.50120%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.900.59010%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.820.32117%1
ANA J. Viel1.600.19012%0
NYI A. Pelech1.620.3205%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.600.2507%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.510.47018%0
NYI O. Palat1.420.44018%0
ANA R. Poehling1.420.46116%1
NYI S. Holmstrom1.440.65024%0
NYI J. Drouin1.330.55114%0
NYI J. Pageau1.210.50017%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.210.3809%0
NYI M. Gatcomb1.100.21013%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.120.28011%0
ANA R. Strome1.100.30110%0
ANA T. Washe1.000.19010%0
ANA R. Gudas1.020.1903%0
ANA I. Moore0.920.2115%0
NYI S. Mayfield0.920.1905%0
NYI C. Soucy0.910.2007%0
NYI A. Boqvist0.810.2707%0
NYI K. MacLean0.810.1808%0
ANA R. Johnston0.600.1705%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.