Game Recap: NYI 2, CAR 6, October 30, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalThu, Oct 30, 2025Every game that night

CAR6

CAR beat NYI 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.46 expected goals to 2.32. A. Svechnikov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Heineman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. B. Bussi stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	0	1	2
CAR	3	0	3	6

1st 2:33CARB. Nadeau0.02 xG
1st 5:21CARM. ReillySH0.47 xG
1st 10:21CARJ. Martinook0.56 xG
1st 13:20NYIM. SchaeferPP0.05 xG
3rd 1:51CARJ. Blake0.19 xG
3rd 10:48NYIS. Holmstrom0.22 xG
3rd 10:59CARA. Svechnikov0.13 xG
3rd 19:49CARL. Stankoven0.25 xG

Team Stats

NYICAR

28Shots on goal34

2.32Expected goals5.46

52Shot attempts73

205v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play0/1

30Hits19

13Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes10

17Giveaways22

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.32 xGCAR 5.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI26 on goal, 2 scored

CAR34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	19:19	5:15
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	19:02	5:13
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	0	16:56	1:53
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	4	18:57	5:19
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:53	1:59
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	5	6	0	-2	0	18:25	4:58
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:45	2:14
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	15:28	0:22
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:55	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	11:04	1:31
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	2	10:32	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	18:38	4:50
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	16:59	2:22
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	19:40	0:04
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-4	0	15:52	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	15:17	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:55	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	34	28	6	.824	60:00	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	2	15:50	1:48
L. Stankoven	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	0	14:04	0:12
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	16:44	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	4	2	3	+1	2	15:50	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:58	1:48
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	2	14:43	0:12
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	12:12	0:12
B. Nadeau	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:02	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	18:06	1:48
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:49	1:48
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	10:33	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	9:32	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	+3	2	20:28	0:12
M. Reilly	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+3	0	19:56	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	22:02	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+3	0	21:56	1:48
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:23	0:12
C. Legault	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1J. Drouin13:31B. Horvat13:30E. Heineman13:04

Line 2A. Lee15:19J. Pageau12:29S. Holmstrom12:34

Line 3K. Palmieri11:55A. Duclair15:31C. Cizikas12:45

Line 4K. MacLean10:21M. Tsyplakov9:33

Pair 1A. Pelech13:07R. Pulock13:40

Pair 2A. Romanov17:07T. DeAngelo13:22

Pair 3S. Mayfield13:14M. Schaefer12:45

CAR

Line 1T. Hall14:06L. Stankoven12:48J. Blake10:44

Line 2J. Staal12:46A. Svechnikov12:49J. Martinook11:53

Line 3S. Aho12:28S. Jarvis11:54N. Ehlers12:22

Line 4B. Nadeau10:02M. Jankowski8:38J. Kotkaniemi9:42

Pair 1J. Chatfield16:38J. Nystrom15:49

Pair 2S. Walker15:14A. Nikishin16:23

Pair 3M. Reilly14:33C. Legault15:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTony DeAngelo NYI Faces CAR, his team until May 20241 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.8, CAR 3.4	NYI 2, CAR 6
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	NYI 26.5, CAR 32.2	NYI 28, CAR 34
Win chance	CAR 59%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	1	0.78	0	31%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.9	2	0.91	1	30%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.9	2	0.97	0	33%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.7	3	1.08	0	36%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.4	2	0.36	0	10%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	2	0.63	1	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.3	2	0.55	2	21%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.3	2	0.59	1	22%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.2	3	0.70	2	25%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.2	2	0.50	0	21%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.0	3	0.46	1	8%	1
CAR B. Nadeau	2.0	1	0.36	1	14%	1
CAR M. Reilly	1.9	2	0.30	1	5%	1
CAR T. Hall	1.8	0	0.56	1	21%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.6	1	0.39	1	6%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	3	0.31	0	9%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	2	0.42	0	21%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.43	1	17%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.4	3	0.40	1	8%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	4	0.46	1	16%	1
NYI J. Drouin	1.2	1	0.62	1	15%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.2	5	0.34	0	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.1	1	0.23	0	3%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	2	0.40	0	13%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	1	0.32	0	12%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	2	0.43	1	17%	1
NYI A. Romanov	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.29	0	15%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	1	0.26	0	9%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	1	0.19	0	8%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.8	0	0.24	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.