Game Recap: NYI 1, CBJ 6, April 17, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalThu, Apr 17, 2025Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat NYI 6-1, with the chances close: 3.29 expected goals to 3.20. NYI outshot CBJ 37 to 26. Z. Werenski led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Greaves stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	0	1	1
CBJ	0	5	1	6

2nd 2:21CBJC. Sillinger0.15 xG
2nd 7:43CBJD. Fabbro0.02 xG
2nd 10:09CBJD. Voronkov0.26 xG
2nd 15:14CBJS. Kuraly0.08 xG
2nd 17:27CBJZ. Werenski0.21 xG
3rd 14:48NYIH. Fasching0.10 xG
3rd 18:37CBJA. Fantilli0.01 xG

Team Stats

NYICBJ

37Shots on goal26

3.20Expected goals3.29

72Shot attempts63

355v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/0

8Hits9

18Blocked shots15

0Penalty minutes2

9Giveaways13

13Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.20 xGCBJ 3.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI37 on goal, 1 scored

CBJ26 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:08	0:00
H. Fasching	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:55	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	17:44	1:16
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	17:32	1:16
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	17:30	1:17
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	14:56	0:44
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	14:34	0:44
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:24	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	13:35	0:43
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	13:34	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	13:32	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	-2	12:22	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	23:19	1:19
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	21:11	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	-3	20:06	1:20
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	19:23	0:41
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	18:17	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	17:58	0:40

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Hogberg	26	20	6	.769	60:00	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Sillinger	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	15:03	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	19:09	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:56	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:34	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	14:18	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:04	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	12:51	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:35	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	16:41	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:16	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	14:13	0:00
J. Williams	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	11:09	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	23:27	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	1	0	1	3	0	5	+3	0	20:22	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	18:56	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	18:26	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	20:52	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	2	18:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.3, CBJ 3.3	NYI 1, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	NYI 31.0, CBJ 30.3	NYI 37, CBJ 26
Win chance	NYI 50%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	3	0.84	2	15%	1
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	1	0.76	0	33%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.7	6	0.62	0	28%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.6	3	0.65	0	28%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	1	0.75	1	29%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.5	2	0.67	0	29%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.4	3	0.61	0	12%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.3	5	0.60	0	13%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.2	3	0.61	1	25%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.2	0	0.82	1	24%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.9	2	0.51	1	22%	1
NYI P. Engvall	1.8	3	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.8	1	0.41	2	15%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.7	3	0.69	0	23%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.6	3	0.24	0	5%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.6	2	0.44	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	1	0.52	0	18%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	0	0.37	0	16%	0
NYI H. Fasching	1.4	4	0.26	1	12%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.4	0	0.42	0	7%	0
CBJ J. Danforth	1.4	1	0.35	1	15%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.4	2	0.28	1	12%	0
CBJ J. Riemsdyk	1.4	3	0.47	1	17%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.4	3	0.33	1	6%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	0	0.52	0	22%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.3	2	0.29	0	18%	0
CBJ S. Kuraly	1.3	1	0.25	1	11%	1
NYI A. Boqvist	1.2	1	0.36	0	9%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.2	0	0.27	1	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.31	0	7%	0
NYI K. MacLean	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	2	0.18	0	5%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
NYI S. Perunovich	0.8	0	0.36	0	3%	0
CBJ J. Harris	0.5	1	0.14	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.