Game Recap: NYI 4, CBJ 3 (OT), February 28, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI4

Final/OTSat, Feb 28, 2026Every game that night

CBJ3

NYI beat CBJ 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 2.47. S. Mayfield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Mayfield had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. I. Sorokin stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	0	3	0	1	4
CBJ	1	2	0	0	3

1st 2:30CBJI. Lundestrom0.06 xG
2nd 3:58CBJM. Marchment0.11 xG
2nd 11:37NYIA. Lee0.32 xG
2nd 11:59NYIJ. Pageau0.10 xG
2nd 17:10NYIS. Mayfield0.01 xG
2nd 18:58CBJA. Fantilli0.10 xG
OT 1:47NYIS. Holmstrom0.31 xG

Team Stats

NYICBJ

27Shots on goal30

2.35Expected goals2.47

66Shot attempts63

255v5 shots on goal30

0/2Power play0/0

22Hits32

20Blocked shots20

0Penalty minutes2

9Giveaways20

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.35 xGCBJ 2.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI27 on goal, 4 scored

CBJ29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	20:52	2:17
J. Pageau	C	1	1	2	2	2	1	+2	14:17	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+3	16:01	2:35
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	14:03	1:14
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	22:21	2:45
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	19:08	1:36
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	17:14	2:40
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	17:01	1:18
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	16:28	1:08
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	10:39	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	9:56	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	9:07	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	14:19	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	22:11	1:06
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	25:31	2:50
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	21:46	0:01
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	19:35	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	14:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	30	27	3	.900	61:47	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+1	0	19:24	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	18:55	0:00
A. Fantilli	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	-2	0	18:21	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	10:17	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:37	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	17:52	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	16:34	0:00
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	16:08	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:22	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	2	15:21	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	14:07	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	0	8:31	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	5	2	1	+1	0	28:02	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	0	0	14:40	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	26:11	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	19:09	0:00
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:44	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	27	23	4	.852	61:47	OT loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat18:35M. Barzal17:14O. Palat15:16

Line 2J. Drouin17:32E. Heineman15:43C. Ritchie14:34

Line 3J. Pageau13:35S. Holmstrom13:00A. Lee12:49

Line 4K. MacLean9:07M. Gatcomb10:39C. Cizikas9:56

Pair 1R. Pulock19:35M. Schaefer21:42

Pair 2A. Pelech21:45T. DeAngelo20:17

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:19C. Soucy14:52

CBJ

Line 1M. Marchment18:18A. Fantilli17:14K. Marchenko17:06

Line 2C. Coyle16:02M. Olivier16:08C. Sillinger15:22

Line 3B. Jenner14:30D. Heinen14:07S. Monahan13:31

Line 4M. Wood8:37I. Lundestrom8:47D. Voronkov8:31

Pair 1D. Severson25:12Z. Werenski25:43

Pair 2E. Gudbranson16:39D. Fabbro14:05

Pair 3I. Provorov16:19D. Mateychuk14:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, CBJ 3.1	NYI 4, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NYI 27.4, CBJ 29.5	NYI 27, CBJ 30
Win chance	CBJ 54%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	5	0.95	2	20%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	4	0.82	0	34%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.7	0	0.74	0	29%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	2	0.67	1	26%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.3	1	0.86	2	23%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	1	0.65	0	22%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	1	0.51	1	22%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.2	1	0.50	1	12%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.0	1	0.40	0	21%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	4	0.65	1	25%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	2	0.47	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	1	0.61	1	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	4	0.39	0	13%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	0	0.35	0	8%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.6	2	0.55	0	19%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	2	0.45	0	10%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	3	0.26	0	5%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.5	0	0.42	0	17%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.4	1	0.25	1	12%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.59	1	22%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.3	0	0.34	0	16%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.3	4	0.40	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	3	0.33	0	7%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.2	0	0.48	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	2	0.44	2	16%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	1	0.19	0	12%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.0	2	0.34	0	10%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.21	1	6%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.0	2	0.28	0	13%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.16	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	2	0.18	1	8%	1
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	4	0.15	2	4%	1

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.