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Game Recap
NYI3
FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026Every game that night
DAL6

DAL beat NYI 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 1.88. DAL outshot NYI 38 to 20. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Blackwell had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Oettinger stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYI1203
DAL2136
  1. 1st 11:31DALT. Seguin0.12 xG
  2. 1st 13:43NYIM. Schaefer0.08 xG
  3. 1st 14:32DALJ. Robertson0.22 xG
  4. 2nd 4:01NYIK. Palmieri0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 10:52DALJ. HryckowianPP0.28 xG
  6. 2nd 17:45NYIB. Schenn0.18 xG
  7. 3rd 4:10DALW. Johnston0.17 xG
  8. 3rd 9:45DALJ. Robertson0.17 xG
  9. 3rd 13:02DALM. Rantanen0.10 xG

Team Stats

NYIDAL
20Shots on goal38
1.88Expected goals3.85
44Shot attempts65
165v5 shots on goal35
0/3Power play1/2
29Hits9
13Blocked shots13
6Penalty minutes8
17Giveaways13
4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.88 xGDAL 3.85 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdDAL goal, 11:31NYI goal, 13:43DAL goal, 14:32NYI goal, 4:01DAL goal, 10:52NYI goal, 17:45DAL goal, 4:10DAL goal, 9:45DAL goal, 13:02

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI19 on goal, 3 scored
DAL37 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HorvatC0222020019:183:18
K. PalmieriC101301-1016:582:55
B. SchennC101251-2016:102:00
E. HeinemanLW011042-2015:001:02
A. DuclairLW011110-1014:371:06
S. HolmstromRW0002010018:573:23
O. PalatLW0002200015:171:28
V. EklundRW0000410014:231:25
J. PageauC0002100013:210:02
C. CizikasC0000200011:270:02
M. ChaffeeRW0000200211:220:02
K. MacLeanC0000300010:370:00
M. SchaeferD1011010026:163:28
R. PulockD011022-1019:060:02
L. StanleyD000111-1220:510:27
A. PelechD0002210219:230:08
T. DeAngeloD000000-2017:141:27
M. KesselD0002000014:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin38326.84259:56Loss
S. Varlamov000–0:00

DAL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
W. JohnstonC112221-1020:152:12
J. RobertsonLW2023020018:582:12
R. HintzC022200+2016:171:21
T. SeguinC1122000014:520:00
M. RantanenRW101200+1018:522:12
J. HryckowianC1012000013:540:51
J. KivirantaLW011221+1013:080:00
J. BennLW011100+1012:150:00
A. HyryRW000300+1016:010:00
C. BlackwellC0004200010:180:00
D. HryckowianRW000100+1010:030:00
M. SeminoffRW000210008:530:00
T. HarleyD011314-1024:430:29
N. LundkvistD011001+4218:200:00
L. BichselD011011+4218:100:00
M. HeiskanenD000400-2221:561:43
T. MyersD000302-1020:040:00
K. CapobiancoD0002010215:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Oettinger20173.85060:00Win
C. DeSmith000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat13:33S. Holmstrom13:23K. Palmieri13:14
Line 2B. Schenn13:57E. Heineman12:15V. Eklund12:58
Line 3O. Palat13:08J. Pageau11:46A. Duclair11:55
Line 4K. MacLean10:37M. Chaffee11:20C. Cizikas10:52
Pair 1M. Schaefer20:04L. Stanley18:54
Pair 2A. Pelech16:41R. Pulock17:07
Pair 3T. DeAngelo14:02M. Kessel12:54

DAL

Line 1W. Johnston16:15M. Rantanen15:32J. Kiviranta11:08
Line 2T. Seguin14:01R. Hintz13:41J. Robertson15:08
Line 3J. Benn12:15A. Hyry12:11D. Hryckowian10:03
Line 4J. Hryckowian10:58M. Seminoff8:53C. Blackwell8:41
Pair 1T. Harley18:41M. Heiskanen16:07
Pair 2L. Bichsel17:27N. Lundkvist15:44
Pair 3T. Myers16:54K. Capobianco15:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 13 overs hit (62%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NYI B. Horvat2.5-114-1142Under
DAL J. Robertson2.5-175+1403Over
DAL M. Rantanen2.5+170-1852Under
NYI M. Schaefer2.5-120+1051Under
DAL R. Hintz2.5+142-1802Under
DAL W. Johnston2.5+115-1302Under
NYI B. Schenn1.5+100-1202Over
DAL J. Kiviranta1.5+155-1902Over
NYI K. Palmieri1.5-155+1303Over
DAL M. Heiskanen1.5-144+1304Over
NYI S. Holmstrom1.5+122-1352Over
DAL T. Harley1.5-145+1203Over
DAL T. Seguin1.5-135+1142Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYI 2.5, DAL 2.9NYI 3, DAL 6
Total goals5.49
Shots on goalNYI 24.7, DAL 25.9NYI 20, DAL 38
Win chanceDAL 58%DAL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DAL J. Robertson3.231.02236%2
NYI M. Schaefer3.010.73118%1
NYI B. Horvat2.920.74231%0
DAL W. Johnston2.520.87235%1
DAL M. Rantanen2.321.10134%1
DAL R. Hintz2.120.76228%0
NYI K. Palmieri2.130.58124%1
DAL M. Heiskanen2.040.77012%0
DAL T. Harley1.930.55111%0
DAL T. Seguin1.920.57223%1
NYI E. Heineman1.600.29117%0
NYI B. Schenn1.620.56121%1
NYI T. DeAngelo1.400.3206%0
DAL A. Hyry1.430.30016%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.420.53022%0
DAL J. Kiviranta1.420.25113%0
NYI V. Eklund1.400.32014%0
NYI A. Pelech1.320.2304%0
DAL J. Benn1.210.43116%0
NYI L. Stanley1.210.3006%0
DAL J. Hryckowian1.120.35116%1
NYI J. Pageau1.120.41016%0
NYI A. Duclair1.110.33116%0
NYI R. Pulock1.000.2515%0
NYI O. Palat1.020.26012%0
DAL N. Lundkvist1.000.2414%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.000.2009%0
DAL T. Myers0.930.1703%0
DAL C. Blackwell0.940.1708%0
NYI M. Chaffee0.700.1508%0
DAL L. Bichsel0.700.1615%0
NYI M. Kessel0.720.1303%0
NYI K. MacLean0.600.1205%0
DAL K. Capobianco0.620.1203%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.