Game Recap: NYI 3, FLA 6, February 2, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalSun, Feb 2, 2025Every game that night

FLA6

FLA beat NYI 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.16 expected goals to 3.39. C. Verhaeghe scored three for FLA. A. Lee had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Knight stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	3	0	3
FLA	2	2	2	6

1st 0:39FLAC. Verhaeghe0.08 xG
1st 12:52FLAC. Verhaeghe0.11 xG
2nd 3:10NYIK. MacLean0.37 xG
2nd 10:00NYIJ. PageauPP0.29 xG
2nd 14:51NYIM. Gatcomb0.06 xG
2nd 17:52FLAE. Rodrigues0.11 xG
2nd 19:09FLAS. Reinhart0.17 xG
3rd 10:41FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.04 xG
3rd 18:21FLAM. TkachukEN0.63 xG

Team Stats

NYIFLA

34Shots on goal33

3.39Expected goals4.16

65Shot attempts64

255v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play1/2

12Hits28

16Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways16

6Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.39 xGFLA 4.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI34 on goal, 3 scored

FLA33 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	2	15:41	2:20
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	4	3	0	-1	0	15:06	0:36
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	13:08	0:11
M. Gatcomb	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	2	10:46	0:00
K. MacLean	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-2	0	21:00	3:29
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:09	3:16
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	7	0	0	-1	0	17:35	3:18
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:35	2:26
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	2	16:29	2:24
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:18	3:24
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:06	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	9:50	1:27
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	22:52	3:13
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	-2	0	22:36	0:00
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	-1	0	23:27	0:20
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	21:24	2:25
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:45	2:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Skarek	32	27	5	.844	56:45	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	3	1	4	3	0	0	+4	0	17:28	1:42
A. Barkov	C	0	3	3	2	0	1	+2	0	18:00	1:42
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+3	0	19:02	1:42
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	2	6	1	0	+1	0	15:42	1:42
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:08	0:30
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:04	0:30
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:35	0:30
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	15:16	0:30
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:27	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:16	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	9:12	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	8:59	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	+3	0	22:29	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	+3	2	21:54	1:42
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	4	22:05	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	20:00	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:15	0:30
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+2	0	14:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	34	31	3	.912	59:54	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Duclair NYI Faces FLA, his team until Jun 20230 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.5, FLA 3.0	NYI 3, FLA 6
Total goals	5.5	9
Shots on goal	NYI 26.3, FLA 32.1	NYI 34, FLA 33
Win chance	FLA 58%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	6	1.01	2	31%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	5	0.58	0	25%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	3	0.69	4	28%	3
NYI B. Horvat	2.7	2	0.67	0	29%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	1	0.84	2	36%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.4	7	0.55	0	26%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.4	3	0.67	0	30%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	2	0.91	3	27%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.2	3	0.39	2	10%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.2	1	0.52	1	11%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	2.0	3	0.47	1	10%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.8	2	0.42	1	17%	1
FLA A. Lundell	1.8	3	0.52	1	17%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	1.8	1	0.51	0	22%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.7	1	0.32	1	4%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.6	4	0.32	0	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.4	0	0.25	0	5%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	0	0.43	0	20%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	4	0.39	1	14%	1
FLA N. Schmidt	1.3	1	0.28	0	6%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	1	0.24	0	5%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	0	0.33	1	13%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.1	1	0.32	1	12%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	0	0.41	0	18%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	1	0.33	0	15%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	4	0.23	1	10%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	1.0	1	0.27	0	7%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	3	0.16	1	9%	1
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.9	0	0.14	0	8%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.9	1	0.22	2	5%	0
NYI P. Engvall	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.14	1	7%	1
NYI S. Perunovich	0.6	0	0.29	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.