Game Recap: NYI 3, LAK 5, March 5, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalThu, Mar 5, 2026Every game that night

LAK5

LAK beat NYI 5-3, with the chances close: 4.24 expected goals to 3.85. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Kuemper stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	1	2	3
LAK	1	2	2	5

1st 3:17LAKA. Panarin0.12 xG
2nd 14:20LAKS. Helenius0.09 xG
2nd 15:51LAKM. Anderson0.03 xG
2nd 19:59NYIB. Horvat0.00 xG
3rd 2:30LAKA. LaferrierePP0.07 xG
3rd 4:30NYIA. PelechSH0.24 xG
3rd 8:30LAKA. Kempe0.34 xG
3rd 18:01NYIE. Heineman0.13 xG

Team Stats

NYILAK

35Shots on goal35

3.85Expected goals4.24

79Shot attempts71

245v5 shots on goal27

0/3Power play1/3

20Hits24

17Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways9

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.85 xGLAK 4.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI35 on goal, 3 scored

LAK35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Pageau	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	15:57	0:00
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	0	24:00	3:17
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	3	0	3	-1	0	23:16	3:44
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	15:35	2:34
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	21:31	3:19
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	6	2	0	+1	0	18:58	2:38
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:49	3:15
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	15:15	2:30
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:56	2:13
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	11:37	0:05
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	9:32	0:05
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	6:30	0:05
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	27:47	3:38
A. Pelech	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	0	0	19:10	0:08
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	24:01	2:19
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	19:29	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:34	0:05
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	9:31	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	35	30	5	.857	51:25	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	23:39	3:45
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	0	23:36	4:48
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	25:10	3:49
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	5	2	2	-1	0	21:09	1:23
J. Malott	LW	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	8:26	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	0	8:08	0:00
S. Helenius	C	1	0	1	1	6	1	0	0	7:51	0:00
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	0	19:56	1:40
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	15:51	3:54
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	10:27	0:15
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	7:29	0:00
K. Connors	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	7:05	0:35
M. Anderson	D	1	1	2	2	1	3	+2	0	24:01	0:19
B. Clarke	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	0	17:17	3:33
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	25:48	1:34
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	17:14	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:51	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	35	32	3	.914	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat12:52M. Barzal13:23O. Palat10:19

Line 2J. Pageau10:02S. Holmstrom9:47A. Lee11:06

Line 3C. Cizikas9:39M. Gatcomb9:27K. MacLean6:25

Line 4J. Drouin9:55E. Heineman10:04C. Ritchie7:45

Pair 1A. Pelech15:37T. DeAngelo17:50

Pair 2R. Pulock13:32M. Schaefer17:19

Pair 3S. Mayfield7:56C. Soucy8:32

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar14:24A. Kempe13:54A. Panarin13:57

Line 2T. Moore11:09A. Laferriere12:26A. Turcotte10:12

Line 3J. Malott7:34T. Ward8:08S. Helenius7:46

Line 4K. Connors6:18J. Wright7:03C. Perry8:03

Pair 1D. Doughty15:20M. Anderson16:10

Pair 2B. Clarke13:44J. Edmundson11:08

Pair 3B. Dumoulin12:45C. Ceci11:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, LAK 3.0	NYI 3, LAK 5
Total goals	5.6	8
Shots on goal	NYI 26.0, LAK 27.8	NYI 35, LAK 35
Win chance	LAK 56%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	4	0.74	1	31%	1
LAK A. Panarin	3.1	2	1.18	2	35%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.9	3	0.91	2	35%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.7	5	0.53	1	22%	1
LAK B. Clarke	2.3	2	0.58	2	12%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	3	0.78	1	21%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.2	6	0.47	0	20%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.1	2	0.58	1	17%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.1	5	0.48	0	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.9	1	0.43	0	8%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.8	4	0.34	1	18%	1
LAK C. Perry	1.8	4	0.56	0	24%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.5	3	0.28	1	14%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.4	1	0.45	1	10%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	3	0.56	0	21%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.4	1	0.32	0	11%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.4	2	0.37	0	15%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	3	0.23	1	3%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	1	0.68	1	21%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.2	0	0.43	0	11%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	1	0.40	2	14%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	2	0.28	0	5%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.1	1	0.19	1	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	2	0.23	0	9%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.0	0	0.17	0	10%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	2	0.22	2	5%	1
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	1	0.20	1	11%	1
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.7	1	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.