Game Recap: NYI 4, NJD 3 (OT), October 25, 2024

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Game Recap

NYI4

Final/OTFri, Oct 25, 2024Every game that night

NJD3

NYI beat NJD 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.57 expected goals to 3.78. J. Bratt led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. I. Sorokin stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	2	1	0	1	4
NJD	1	1	1	0	3

1st 1:23NYIB. Nelson0.21 xG
1st 11:36NJDN. Hischier0.31 xG
1st 14:03NYIA. LeePP0.26 xG
2nd 5:31NJDC. Lazar0.17 xG
2nd 11:28NYIK. Palmieri0.06 xG
3rd 18:31NJDJ. Bratt0.31 xG
OT 1:09NYIB. Horvat0.17 xG

Team Stats

NYINJD

30Shots on goal36

2.57Expected goals3.78

55Shot attempts67

195v5 shots on goal26

1/4Power play0/2

32Hits27

15Blocked shots11

9Penalty minutes13

8Giveaways15

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.57 xGNJD 3.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI30 on goal, 4 scored

NJD36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	19:33	4:13
K. Palmieri	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	18:30	2:59
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	4	1	2	0	0	20:27	4:37
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:33	3:33
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	17:08	3:20
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	14:44	3:31
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:10	4:24
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	18:09	4:29
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	11:52	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:36	0:12
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	8:26	0:00
L. Foudy	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	7:02	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	4	2	2	-1	0	25:08	3:43
A. Romanov	D	0	1	1	1	5	3	0	0	21:51	0:16
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	3	3	1	+1	0	21:45	0:26
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+2	2	20:50	0:00
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:08	4:07
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	7	11:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	36	33	3	.917	61:09	Win
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	1	1	2	3	2	1	0	2	19:04	2:21
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	21:19	2:38
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:00	0:00
C. Lazar	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	9:47	0:00
J. Hughes	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	23:49	2:40
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	21:11	1:37
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	18:29	1:25
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	15:57	1:22
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:09	2:35
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:14	0:00
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:25	1:20
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	5	2:24	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	19:15	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	2	14:31	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	23:53	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	20:58	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	20:36	1:39
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	17:51	2:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	30	26	4	.867	60:46	OT loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20261 SOG
HometownKyle Palmieri NYI Plays near home (born in Smithtown)1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.4, NJD 3.0	NYI 4, NJD 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	NYI 29.8, NJD 30.8	NYI 30, NJD 36
Win chance	NYI 54%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	4.0	5	1.09	0	35%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.1	1	0.66	0	15%	0
NJD T. Meier	3.0	2	0.71	0	30%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	2	0.81	1	35%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.9	3	0.91	1	29%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.9	3	0.90	2	27%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.8	4	0.99	1	26%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.8	2	0.69	2	29%	1
NYI B. Nelson	2.7	1	0.88	2	36%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.4	6	0.52	1	26%	1
NYI N. Dobson	2.1	4	0.77	1	12%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.7	3	0.42	0	17%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	3	0.48	0	23%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.6	3	0.53	0	8%	0
NYI M. Reilly	1.6	1	0.29	0	6%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.6	1	0.50	0	19%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.6	1	0.51	0	18%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.4	1	0.34	1	16%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	4	0.22	0	5%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	0	0.35	1	7%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	2	0.45	1	17%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	1	0.29	1	5%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.3	0	0.26	0	12%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.2	3	0.34	1	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	1	0.38	0	14%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.2	0	0.20	1	4%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.1	3	0.28	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	0	0.34	0	18%	0
NJD B. Dillon	1.0	1	0.27	1	5%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.9	1	0.23	1	9%	1
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NYI L. Foudy	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	2	0.26	0	13%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.07	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.