Game Recap: NYI 1, NJD 0, April 13, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalSun, Apr 13, 2025Every game that night

NJD0

NYI beat NJD 1-0, with the chances close: 1.80 expected goals to 2.26. B. Horvat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. I. Sorokin stopped 25 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	1	0	1
NJD	0	0	0	0

2nd 19:03NYIB. Horvat0.03 xG

Team Stats

NYINJD

23Shots on goal25

1.80Expected goals2.26

44Shot attempts65

145v5 shots on goal21

0/3Power play0/1

27Hits19

22Blocked shots9

2Penalty minutes17

31Giveaways22

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.80 xGNJD 2.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI22 on goal, 1 scored

NJD24 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	19:18	5:35
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	20:31	5:19
A. Lee	LW	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:32	5:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:32	2:11
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	14:47	1:47
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	14:34	1:16
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:34	1:02
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:33	0:42
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	14:25	2:12
K. MacLean	C	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:31	0:43
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	10:19	0:44
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:06	0:28
N. Dobson	D	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	24:53	5:39
A. Romanov	D	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	22:27	2:11
R. Pulock	D	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	22:18	3:47
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:08	6:14
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	19:26	0:10
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	25	25	0	1.000	60:00	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	3	1	0	-1	0	21:03	0:57
T. Meier	RW	4	1	2	-1	0	20:33	0:57
J. Bratt	LW	3	0	1	-1	0	19:43	0:57
D. Mercer	C	1	1	2	0	0	19:17	0:57
E. Haula	LW	0	2	0	0	0	15:53	0:00
D. Sprong	RW	2	4	0	0	0	14:52	0:57
O. Palat	LW	1	0	0	0	0	13:05	0:45
C. Glass	C	1	1	1	0	0	12:45	0:55
T. Tatar	LW	0	1	0	0	0	12:04	0:58
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	2	9:12	0:06
J. Dowling	C	1	1	0	0	0	9:08	0:08
P. Cotter	LW	1	2	1	0	15	5:42	0:05
B. Pesce	D	2	0	0	-1	0	21:08	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	0	0	20:59	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	3	0	0	0	19:55	0:18
L. Hughes	D	3	0	0	-1	0	19:27	0:57
S. Nemec	D	1	1	1	0	0	18:36	0:56
B. Dumoulin	D	2	0	0	0	0	18:05	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	23	22	1	.957	59:33	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20261 SOG
HometownKyle Palmieri NYI Plays near home (born in Smithtown)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, NJD 3.3	NYI 1, NJD 0
Total goals	6.1	1
Shots on goal	NYI 27.3, NJD 28.7	NYI 23, NJD 25
Win chance	NJD 57%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.2	4	0.80	0	34%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.6	6	0.62	1	28%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	3	1.02	0	34%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	3	1.15	0	30%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.3	0	0.55	0	11%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.2	2	0.50	0	24%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.1	1	0.52	0	10%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	1	0.53	0	25%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.9	3	0.69	0	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.9	1	0.53	0	24%	0
NJD D. Sprong	1.9	2	0.49	0	20%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.8	0	0.43	0	19%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	1	0.43	0	15%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.6	2	0.31	0	15%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.6	2	0.30	0	6%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	0	0.29	0	4%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	1	0.38	0	12%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	2	0.25	0	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.3	0	0.44	0	15%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	1	0.44	0	18%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	2	0.46	0	20%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	2	0.24	0	11%	0
NYI H. Fasching	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.28	0	6%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	0	0.25	0	16%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	1	0.30	0	16%	0
NJD T. Tatar	1.1	0	0.35	0	15%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	0	0.26	0	12%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.9	2	0.28	0	4%	0
NJD S. Nemec	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.27	0	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.