Game Recap: NYI 3, NJD 1, February 5, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalThu, Feb 5, 2026Every game that night

NJD1

NYI beat NJD 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 2.22. NJD outshot NYI 24 to 14. B. Horvat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). I. Sorokin stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	1	2	3
NJD	0	1	0	1

2nd 6:30NYIC. Cizikas0.38 xG
2nd 18:26NJDN. Hischier0.12 xG
3rd 16:33NYIB. Horvat0.28 xG
3rd 19:36NYIM. BarzalEN0.66 xG

Team Stats

NYINJD

14Shots on goal24

3.00Expected goals2.22

46Shot attempts50

135v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play0/1

25Hits13

12Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways22

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.00 xGNJD 2.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI14 on goal, 3 scored

NJD23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	1	2	1	3	1	+1	0	20:50	1:13
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	18:44	1:14
C. Cizikas	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:05	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	2	10:22	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	9:20	0:00
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	2	3	+2	0	17:44	0:47
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	16:49	0:49
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:13	0:46
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:44	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:39	1:11
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:32	1:10
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:54	0:50
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	24:17	1:22
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	22:31	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	20:32	0:38
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	19:40	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:26	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	-1	0	20:02	2:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	18:44	2:00
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:22	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:02	2:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	18:46	0:00
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:30	1:53
E. Dadonov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:41	0:00
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:38	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:34	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	10:42	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:18	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	8:37	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	22:47	2:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	19:44	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	19:18	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:03	0:07
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:09	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	13	11	2	.846	57:59	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat16:57M. Barzal16:34O. Palat16:09

Line 2E. Heineman15:32J. Drouin15:00C. Ritchie13:04

Line 3A. Lee12:38J. Pageau13:50S. Holmstrom12:26

Line 4C. Cizikas10:02K. MacLean10:22M. Gatcomb9:20

Pair 1A. Pelech20:40T. DeAngelo19:54

Pair 2M. Schaefer21:47R. Pulock17:56

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:08C. Soucy13:36

NJD

Line 1T. Meier17:37D. Mercer17:49C. Brown15:05

Line 2J. Bratt14:45N. Hischier16:06E. Dadonov14:00

Line 3L. Hameenaho13:56C. Glass12:13A. Gritsyuk12:36

Line 4N. Bjugstad9:56M. Tsyplakov9:18P. Cotter8:37

Pair 1J. Siegenthaler17:29J. Kovacevic18:36

Pair 2D. Hamilton19:34B. Pesce18:24

Pair 3B. Dillon15:46S. Nemec18:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOndrej Palat NYI Faces NJD, his team until Jan 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, NJD 3.0	NYI 3, NJD 1
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	NYI 26.2, NJD 29.2	NYI 14, NJD 24
Win chance	NJD 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.4	2	0.67	0	31%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	3	0.63	0	15%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	1	0.75	2	33%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.7	4	0.85	1	32%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.3	0	0.44	0	17%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	4	0.87	1	26%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.2	0	0.61	0	17%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	1	0.82	1	23%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	0	0.48	0	9%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.1	2	0.49	0	21%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.0	1	0.41	0	22%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.8	2	0.55	0	20%	0
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.6	1	0.28	0	15%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.6	1	0.35	0	15%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	1	0.40	0	19%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	0	0.41	0	17%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.4	0	0.36	0	9%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.4	0	0.42	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	1	0.57	0	23%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	0	0.25	0	5%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.31	0	5%	0
NJD E. Dadonov	1.2	1	0.34	0	15%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.2	2	0.36	0	16%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.1	0	0.46	0	12%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	1	0.19	1	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	2	0.26	1	11%	1
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	0	0.42	0	15%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.9	3	0.19	0	4%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.9	1	0.20	0	7%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.8	1	0.19	0	11%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	1	0.15	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.16	1	8%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.