Game Recap: NYI 4, OTT 2, December 8, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYI4

FinalSun, Dec 8, 2024Every game that night

OTT2

NYI beat OTT 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.54 expected goals to 3.12. OTT outshot NYI 31 to 13. A. Lee led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Kleven had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. I. Sorokin stopped 29 of 31.

Team Stats

NYIOTT

13Shots on goal31

1.54Expected goals3.12

33Shot attempts67

75v5 shots on goal27

2/2Power play1/3

25Hits16

21Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways12

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.54 xGOTT 3.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI12 on goal, 3 scored

OTT31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Palmieri	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	2	19:03	1:04
A. Lee	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	16:34	1:04
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	21:58	1:04
P. Engvall	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	10:53	0:00
K. MacLean	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	9:08	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:16	1:04
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:58	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:43	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:46	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	0	10:36	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	9:30	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	8:18	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	0	0	18:40	1:04
D. Cholowski	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:53	0:00
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	3	5	0	0	24:56	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	22:39	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	19:50	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	22:26	2:56
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	19:58	3:28
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	18:03	3:27
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:06	1:40
N. Gregor	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	8:14	0:04
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	6	2	1	-1	0	20:27	3:28
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	18:22	1:43
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	16:27	1:47
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:09	0:02
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:51	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:43	2:12
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:21	0:05
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:02	2:07
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:13	3:14
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:01	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:34	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:42	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:31	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	12	9	3	.750	57:46	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJean-Gabriel Pageau NYI Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, OTT 3.0	NYI 4, OTT 2
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	NYI 27.3, OTT 31.6	NYI 13, OTT 31
Win chance	OTT 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.0	6	0.92	0	33%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	1	0.76	1	31%	1
NYI B. Nelson	2.7	1	0.82	0	35%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.6	1	0.71	2	29%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.6	2	0.62	2	28%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	3	0.84	1	27%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	1	0.98	2	28%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	2	0.56	0	11%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.2	1	0.67	1	32%	1
NYI N. Dobson	2.1	2	0.66	2	12%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.52	0	8%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	3	0.44	0	18%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.9	0	0.71	0	24%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.6	1	0.50	0	18%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.5	1	0.22	1	11%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.4	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	1	0.52	0	17%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	2	0.27	0	11%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.4	1	0.20	0	5%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	3	0.38	0	19%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	0	0.38	0	7%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.33	1	17%	1
NYI P. Engvall	1.3	0	0.32	1	14%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.3	0	0.32	0	5%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.2	0	0.34	0	14%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.45	0	21%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.2	1	0.27	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	4	0.15	0	4%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.8	0	0.28	1	5%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.22	1	11%	1
NYI M. Martin	0.7	1	0.14	0	6%	0
NYI I. George	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.