Game Recap: NYI 2, OTT 3, March 19, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night

OTT3

OTT beat NYI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 1.61. OTT outshot NYI 27 to 19. D. Cozens had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Reimer stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	1	1	2
OTT	0	1	2	3

2nd 4:45NYIM. Schaefer0.02 xG
2nd 10:27OTTS. PintoSH0.08 xG
3rd 2:02NYIB. Schenn0.11 xG
3rd 5:12OTTW. Foegele0.49 xG
3rd 19:47OTTB. Tkachuk0.23 xG

Team Stats

NYIOTT

19Shots on goal27

1.61Expected goals3.56

44Shot attempts56

155v5 shots on goal19

0/4Power play0/2

19Hits29

10Blocked shots17

14Penalty minutes18

13Giveaways15

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.61 xGOTT 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI19 on goal, 2 scored

OTT25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	22:39	5:11
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	18:17	3:56
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	5	11:59	2:34
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	21:48	4:36
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	19:48	2:58
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	5	16:01	4:10
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:53	0:39
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:03	3:22
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:46	0:34
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	9:51	1:59
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	9:47	0:08
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	9:46	0:50
M. Schaefer	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	24:11	5:15
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	17:57	0:23
S. Mayfield	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	13:33	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	22:30	2:45
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:18	0:40
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	13:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	27	24	3	.889	59:54	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	19:27	1:06
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	7	3	0	+1	5	16:48	3:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	12:23	2:43
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	9:26	0:40
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	8:55	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	20:13	0:00
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:54	3:29
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	6	3	1	+1	2	17:14	2:57
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16:06	0:31
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	12:37	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:29	1:03
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	10:40	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	-1	0	21:06	0:11
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	20:54	0:57
N. Matinpalo	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	12:44	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	9:04	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	30:53	3:23
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	2	22:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1M. Barzal17:06B. Horvat16:27E. Heineman16:30

Line 2J. Pageau13:18C. Ritchie10:35A. Lee11:45

Line 3C. Cizikas10:43O. Palat8:56K. MacLean9:39

Line 4B. Schenn8:59S. Holmstrom11:24A. Duclair7:52

Pair 1A. Pelech17:39T. DeAngelo19:45

Pair 2M. Schaefer17:39R. Pulock14:54

Pair 3S. Mayfield12:40C. Soucy13:39

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio15:56S. Pinto15:09N. Cousins12:37

Line 2D. Cozens14:17B. Tkachuk13:48R. Greig12:41

Line 3C. Giroux9:33D. Batherson9:40T. Stützle12:54

Line 4W. Foegele8:46F. Zetterlund8:55L. Eller9:10

Pair 1T. Chabot21:57A. Zub18:38

Pair 2J. Spence19:57T. Kleven16:57

Pair 3D. Gilbert9:04N. Matinpalo9:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJean-Gabriel Pageau NYI Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.8, OTT 3.0	NYI 2, OTT 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	NYI 24.4, OTT 29.0	NYI 19, OTT 27
Win chance	OTT 54%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.6	7	0.76	1	29%	1
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	1	0.81	1	35%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	0	0.89	0	28%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	1	0.52	0	24%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	6	0.59	0	22%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.3	1	0.70	0	14%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.2	3	0.73	1	21%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	0	0.91	0	24%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.70	1	25%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.55	1	23%	1
NYI E. Heineman	1.9	2	0.38	0	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.9	2	0.51	0	10%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.6	1	0.32	1	16%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.6	0	0.36	0	15%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.4	3	0.57	1	21%	1
OTT J. Spence	1.4	0	0.38	1	6%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.4	3	0.28	1	13%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.46	0	18%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.42	0	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	0	0.27	0	5%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.3	0	0.47	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	2	0.56	1	23%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.3	2	0.22	1	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	0	0.31	0	12%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.49	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	0	0.32	1	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.29	0	5%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.0	2	0.39	0	18%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.0	2	0.19	0	9%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.7	0	0.11	1	2%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.7	0	0.15	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.7	1	0.14	1	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.16	0	7%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.5	0	0.19	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.