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Game Recap
NYI1
OTT2
OTT beat NYI 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.40 expected goals to 1.73. L. Ullmark stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 19:48NYIM. Maccelli0.01 xG
- 2nd 15:43OTTR. Greig0.22 xG
Team Stats
NYIOTT
21Shots on goal20
1.73Expected goals3.40
50Shot attempts49
175v5 shots on goal13
0/3Power play0/4
23Hits22
14Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways18
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 1.73 xGOTT 3.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Maccelli | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:55 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:22 | 3:44 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | 4:00 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:25 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:27 | 2:35 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| V. Eklund | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:07 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:38 | 0:33 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:38 | 1:10 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29:33 | 3:36 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 26:34 | 0:27 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:24 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Varlamov | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Greig | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:07 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:07 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:50 | 6:06 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 5:45 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:52 | 5:36 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:04 | 2:17 |
| S. Halliday | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 3:23 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 4:08 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:07 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 2:12 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 1:47 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 24:37 | 2:07 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:54 | 0:25 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:07 |
| C. Yakemchuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:51 | 3:46 |
| C. Crotty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 65:00 | Win |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYI
Line 1B. Horvat14:05M. Maccelli13:57K. Palmieri13:12
Line 2O. Palat13:20J. Pageau12:07A. Duclair8:28
Line 3B. Schenn12:56V. Eklund12:42C. Ritchie10:05
Line 4E. Heineman14:20C. Cizikas11:42S. Holmstrom12:47
Pair 1L. Stanley21:52M. Schaefer24:33
Pair 3T. DeAngelo13:23M. Kessel9:02
OTT
Line 1T. Stützle14:45D. Batherson13:49S. Halliday13:29
Line 2W. Foegele13:30R. Greig14:14F. Zetterlund11:27
Line 3C. Giroux12:02A. Burakovsky11:22D. Cozens11:01
Line 4S. Pinto11:16M. Amadio12:26N. Cousins10:04
Pair 3C. Yakemchuk14:16C. Crotty10:41
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
6 of 19 overs hit (32%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.5 | -115 | -110 | 4 | Over |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.5 | +140 | -175 | 2 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | +135 | -160 | 1 | Under |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.5 | -135 | +120 | 3 | Over |
| OTT S. Halliday | 2.5 | +172 | – | 1 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.5 | +150 | -190 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.5 | +140 | -174 | 2 | Under |
| NYI B. Schenn | 1.5 | +110 | -115 | 1 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.5 | -110 | -108 | 2 | Over |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 1.5 | +125 | -130 | 1 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.5 | +106 | – | 1 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.5 | -110 | -105 | 1 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.5 | +108 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 1.5 | -145 | +135 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 1.5 | +110 | -130 | 2 | Over |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | -105 | -115 | 3 | Over |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.5 | -150 | +130 | 2 | Over |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.5 | +105 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.5 | +150 | -205 | 1 | Under |
2 of 34 overs hit (6%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 0.5 | +470 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| NYI A. Duclair | 0.5 | +600 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| NYI A. Pelech | 0.5 | +2500 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| OTT A. Zub | 0.5 | +1100 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | +210 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | +370 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.5 | +900 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Crotty | 0.5 | +2000 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +400 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +500 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +850 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +190 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +285 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 0.5 | +525 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +425 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| NYI J. Pageau | 0.5 | +700 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.5 | +1200 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | +295 | -420 | 0 | Under |
| OTT M. Amadio | 0.5 | +475 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Kessel | 0.5 | +2500 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +475 | -600 | 1 | Over |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | +425 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| OTT N. Cousins | 0.5 | +850 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| NYI O. Palat | 0.5 | +1000 | -2800 | 0 | Under |
| OTT R. Greig | 0.5 | +575 | -800 | 1 | Over |
| NYI R. Pulock | 0.5 | +2200 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +525 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.5 | +550 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +290 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +550 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 0.5 | +1200 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.5 | +2000 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | +210 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| OTT W. Foegele | 0.5 | +600 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
0 of 21 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 0.5 | +240 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | +200 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | +240 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +215 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +330 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +195 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +180 | -215 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +175 | -210 | 0 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 0.5 | +450 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +390 | -575 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.5 | +235 | -295 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | +250 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +180 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | +130 | -155 | 0 | Under |
| OTT R. Greig | 0.5 | +340 | -475 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +220 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.5 | +400 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +250 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +162 | -160 | 0 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 0.5 | +280 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | -105 | -120 | 0 | Under |
2 of 21 overs hit (10%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 0.5 | +160 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | -115 | +110 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | +128 | -140 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +125 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +190 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +155 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | -135 | +115 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | -110 | -105 | 0 | Under |
| NYI E. Heineman | 0.5 | +220 | -270 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +190 | -260 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.5 | +180 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | +120 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +115 | -132 | 1 | Over |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | -110 | -110 | 0 | Under |
| OTT R. Greig | 0.5 | +200 | -235 | 1 | Over |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +135 | -170 | 0 | Under |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.5 | +220 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +120 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +106 | -120 | 0 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 0.5 | +220 | -235 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | -205 | +165 | 0 | Under |
0 of 18 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Horvat | 0.5 | +300 | -425 | 0 | Under |
| NYI B. Schenn | 0.5 | +310 | -550 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +340 | -750 | 0 | Under |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +380 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +250 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +290 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 0.5 | +310 | -525 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 0.5 | +310 | -500 | 0 | Under |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 0.5 | +310 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +310 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +400 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +375 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | +225 | -275 | 0 | Under |
0 of 2 overs hit (0%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI S. Varlamov | 25.5 | -104 | -120 | 19 | Under |
| OTT L. Ullmark | 22.5 | -105 | -122 | 20 | Under |
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.7, OTT 3.0 | NYI 1, OTT 2 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 25.6, OTT 27.8 | NYI 21, OTT 20 |
| Win chance | OTT 56% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.8 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.7 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.4 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.0 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.9 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT S. Halliday | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI M. Maccelli | 1.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI V. Eklund | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI L. Stanley | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 1.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI O. Palat | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI M. Kessel | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT C. Crotty | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.