Game Recap: NYI 3, PHI 4 (SO), October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI3

Final/SOSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

PHI4

PHI beat NYI 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.17 expected goals to 2.82. T. Zegras led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Ersson stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
NYI	1	1	1	0	3
PHI	0	1	2	1	4

1st 9:51NYIS. HolmstromSH0.07 xG
2nd 6:15NYIA. Duclair0.18 xG
2nd 10:29PHIC. Dvorak0.16 xG
3rd 1:54PHIT. Zegras0.13 xG
3rd 4:21NYIM. Tsyplakov0.10 xG
3rd 7:32PHIT. ZegrasPP0.42 xG

Team Stats

NYIPHI

26Shots on goal26

2.82Expected goals3.17

62Shot attempts46

185v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play1/3

24Hits30

10Blocked shots16

20Penalty minutes18

15Giveaways15

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.82 xGPHI 3.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI26 on goal, 3 scored

PHI26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Duclair	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:17	1:26
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	15:24	1:25
J. Pageau	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13:40	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	12:41	1:33
M. Tsyplakov	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	8:26	0:05
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	24:01	2:26
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:32	2:24
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	20:22	2:25
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:09	2:21
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	2	19:29	1:29
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	8:15	0:09
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	5	7:55	0:04
M. Warren	D	0	2	2	0	2	0	+1	0	11:20	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	17:09	1:39
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	27:40	2:21
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	0	23:30	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	22:19	0:13
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	9	19:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	26	23	3	.885	65:00	OT loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	2	1	3	3	1	2	+2	0	18:43	3:15
C. Dvorak	C	1	1	2	2	2	1	+2	2	15:59	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	18:40	2:57
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	15:29	1:36
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	22:44	3:14
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	20:59	2:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	19:16	1:58
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:14	3:13
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	17:59	1:59
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	7:35	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	7	6:53	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	5	6:47	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	+1	0	27:22	3:01
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-2	0	22:35	2:12
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	27:07	0:40
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:46	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:45	0:00
A. Ginning	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	26	23	3	.885	65:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat17:40J. Drouin16:40E. Heineman16:53

Line 2A. Duclair14:51M. Barzal16:13K. Palmieri15:23

Line 3A. Lee11:08S. Holmstrom10:23J. Pageau9:18

Line 4K. MacLean7:51M. Tsyplakov8:21C. Cizikas7:17

Pair 1A. Pelech18:32R. Pulock19:35

Pair 2S. Mayfield17:20M. Schaefer19:40

Pair 3M. Warren11:20T. DeAngelo15:30

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier15:01T. Konecny16:26O. Tippett14:32

Line 2B. Brink14:34T. Foerster15:12N. Cates12:16

Line 3T. Zegras14:48M. Michkov13:07C. Dvorak15:14

Line 4R. Abols6:47N. Grebenkin7:35G. Hathaway6:35

Pair 1T. Sanheim23:26C. York20:39

Pair 2N. Seeler15:35J. Drysdale18:40

Pair 3N. Juulsen11:56A. Ginning11:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.2, PHI 2.9	NYI 3, PHI 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NYI 27.6, PHI 27.5	NYI 26, PHI 26
Win chance	NYI 55%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	2	0.85	0	34%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	4	0.65	0	27%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	1	0.97	0	25%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.5	1	0.77	1	25%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.4	3	0.74	0	20%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	1	0.88	0	29%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	3	0.73	0	30%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.2	0	0.55	1	24%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.1	3	0.63	0	11%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	1	0.61	0	27%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.8	3	0.67	3	21%	2
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	2	0.52	1	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	0	0.44	0	10%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	2	0.55	0	19%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	3	0.59	1	18%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	1	0.46	1	22%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	2	0.43	2	16%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	0	0.30	0	4%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.2	1	0.68	0	17%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	3	0.38	1	8%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	0	0.46	1	15%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	1	0.34	1	7%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	3	0.33	0	7%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.1	0	0.36	0	19%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	1	0.45	1	18%	1
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	3	0.30	1	9%	1
PHI R. Abols	1.0	1	0.20	0	9%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.9	3	0.22	0	9%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	2	0.19	0	9%	0
PHI A. Ginning	0.7	0	0.13	0	5%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.5	0	0.16	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.