Game Recap: NYI 4, PHI 0, January 26, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI4

FinalMon, Jan 26, 2026Every game that night

PHI0

NYI beat PHI 4-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.65 expected goals to 2.38. J. Pageau led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. DeAngelo had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. I. Sorokin stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	2	1	4
PHI	0	0	0	0

1st 14:29NYIJ. PageauSH0.19 xG
2nd 5:41NYIM. Barzal0.10 xG
2nd 12:50NYIT. DeAngeloPP0.12 xG
3rd 13:38NYIJ. Pageau0.21 xG

Team Stats

NYIPHI

23Shots on goal21

1.65Expected goals2.38

38Shot attempts43

165v5 shots on goal13

1/3Power play0/3

15Hits23

11Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways16

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 1.65 xGPHI 2.38 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI22 on goal, 4 scored

PHI21 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	17:29	3:32
A. Duclair	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	16:02	3:25
J. Pageau	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+2	0	13:30	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:36	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	13:54	3:13
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	10:04	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:17	2:24
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:15	2:16
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:51	2:14
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	14:48	3:22
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	12:39	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:12	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	24:09	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	1	0	1	7	0	3	+2	0	22:32	3:13
I. George	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	12:39	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:19	2:33
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	20:51	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:17	2:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	21	21	0	1.000	59:36	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	1	1	1	-3	0	19:00	1:51
O. Tippett	RW	4	5	0	0	4	17:36	4:39
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	0	17:14	0:00
N. Cates	LW	3	2	0	0	2	16:43	4:09
M. Michkov	RW	4	0	0	-1	0	16:10	4:39
T. Zegras	C	1	0	0	-1	0	15:24	1:21
T. Konecny	RW	1	1	0	-3	0	15:01	1:21
B. Brink	RW	0	2	0	-1	0	15:01	1:07
D. Barkey	C	1	0	0	0	0	14:41	4:31
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	-1	0	11:45	0:00
L. Pederson	C	0	4	0	0	0	10:41	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	1	3	0	0	0	10:32	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	2	-1	0	22:39	0:17
C. York	D	4	0	3	0	2	22:27	4:39
N. Seeler	D	0	3	2	0	0	20:40	0:05
J. Drysdale	D	1	0	1	-2	0	19:24	1:21
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	1	-1	0	16:38	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	2	0	-1	0	12:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	23	19	4	.826	60:00	Loss
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair12:22M. Barzal13:33J. Drouin11:26

Line 2B. Horvat12:25M. Shabanov12:37E. Heineman13:07

Line 3C. Cizikas11:57K. MacLean12:08M. Gatcomb12:30

Line 4A. Lee10:41J. Pageau10:45M. Tsyplakov10:04

Pair 1A. Pelech19:39T. DeAngelo18:50

Pair 2S. Mayfield15:44M. Schaefer17:04

Pair 3I. George12:39A. Boqvist12:04

PHI

Line 1B. Brink13:54N. Cates11:40M. Michkov11:31

Line 2C. Dvorak13:15T. Konecny12:02T. Zegras13:41

Line 3S. Couturier12:53O. Tippett11:40D. Barkey10:03

Line 4C. Grundstrom10:32N. Grebenkin11:45L. Pederson10:41

Pair 1T. Sanheim18:51C. York15:10

Pair 2N. Seeler17:34J. Drysdale18:03

Pair 3R. Ristolainen14:10E. Andrae12:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.0, PHI 3.0	NYI 4, PHI 0
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	NYI 24.9, PHI 27.1	NYI 23, PHI 21
Win chance	NYI 50%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	1	0.79	0	33%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	4	0.60	0	25%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	1	0.84	0	28%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	2.2	1	0.66	0	22%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	4	0.59	0	22%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.1	3	0.54	1	23%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.1	1	0.63	0	17%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.1	0	0.53	0	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	1	0.73	0	24%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.0	1	0.83	2	22%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	7	0.49	1	10%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.8	0	0.32	0	5%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	0	0.49	0	14%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.7	1	0.29	0	17%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	0	0.26	1	5%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.4	1	0.53	2	24%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	0	0.44	0	17%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.4	3	0.44	0	16%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	4	0.40	0	8%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	0	0.38	0	9%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.3	1	0.44	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.38	0	8%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.2	3	0.58	0	14%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.1	0	0.38	0	12%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	2	0.47	2	16%	2
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.0	1	0.19	0	13%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	2	0.28	1	11%	0
PHI L. Pederson	0.9	0	0.17	0	8%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	0.9	1	0.23	1	8%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.8	0	0.31	0	12%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.7	0	0.21	0	6%	0
NYI I. George	0.6	0	0.13	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.